Although the region is as diverse as India itself, there is one characteristic that gives the people of N-E a common identity — discrimination by other Indians and the Central Government. The moot point this time is whether this election augurs change of scene in N-E States
The complex polity in North-Eastern States is intriguing for the rest of India. Even as political issues vary from State to State in the region due to diverse and often conflicting interests of different communities and State Governments, North-East as a whole has caught an unusual amount of attention from the national media this lok Sabha polls. Unlike earlier general elections, there is a different kind of wave focussed on good governance, development and inclusiveness.
BJP’s prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi is perhaps the first PM candidate who has given such a spectacular impetus to N-E issues with already three rounds of campaigning in the region. Modi’s pledge to Nido Tania’s family and assurance to N-E people to eradicate discrimination against North-easterners in the rest of the country has won him some hearts. However, the general perception is that it will have a very limited impact as people in the region have hardly cast their votes based on political issues.
Generally, political issues have little to do with the elections in the region. Candidates’ personal relationship with masses and their pre-poll activities are key deciding factors. People do not perceive any difference among the political parties as most of them have delivered more by way of promises than action on the ground and these candidates are to be found only during election time; after the poll is over they disappear into thin air.
In some localities, community interest, village heads and church diktate shape up voting pattern. They decide choice of the people. They ensure polling even for those who do not turn up at polling stations.
Though seven States, without 14 seats from Assam, send merely 11 candidates to the lok Sabha, political issues vary from State to State. It seems that every constituency has different issues.
For instance, in Manipur, which has two parliamentary constituencies, territorial integrity of the State, withdrawal of Armed Forces Special Powers Act, Indo-Naga dialogue and insurgency are key political issues. Traditionally, a Congress stronghold, local political pundits predicted that the BJP’s Gangmumei Kamei, former professor of the Manipur University, will win this time from the Outer Manipur constituency, reserved for Scheduled Tribes.
In Meghalaya with two lok Sabha seats — Tura and Shillong — the key poll issues are inner-line permits for everyone entering the State and unemployment. In Tura constituency, former lok Sabha Speaker Purno A Sangma, who has represented the seat in the lok Sabha eight times, is contesting from National People’s Party in an alliance with the BJP.
Mizoram’s lone seat is reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Inter-State and international border disputes, refugees and influx are key poll issues. In recent Assembly elections, the Congress had won 33 of the 40 Assembly seats. However, the United Democratic Front, which was formed by eight parties, including the BJP under the initiative of Mizo National Front before the lS elections, is expected to give a tough fight to sitting Congress MP RC Ruala. Poll boycott by influential Young Mizo Association and six other NGOs opposing the Election Commission’s decision to allow Riang (Bru) tribal refugees in Tripura’s relief camps to vote in Mizoram election through postal ballots is likely to affect voter turnout.
In Nagaland, three candidates are in the fray for the single seat. Indo-Naga peace process and corruption allegations are two key poll issues. The ruling regional outfit, the Naga People’s Front, which formed the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland with the BJP, is in a strong position with Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio as its candidate. Congress candidate KV Pusa has put special focus on secularism besides peace and prosperity.
Tripura’s two lS seats are tipped to go in favour of the left Front — consisting of CPI(M), CPI, Forward Block and Revolutionary Socialist Party --- which heads India’s only left Government at present. However, the Trinamool Congress has tried to make inroads into the State by tapping Tripura’s Bengalis, who form around 60 per cent of the population. The BJP is pulling out all the stops to storm the left citadel with BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi addressing a massive rally in Agartala.
The BJP is confident of bagging Arunachal Pradesh seats from the State after a gap of five years, and also of forming the Government in the State despite the Congress winning 11 candidates uncontested in 60-member State Assembly. The main poll issues are completion of hydel-power projects, Chinese aggression, inter-State border disputes unemployment and corruption allegations.
Allegation of corruption and environmental concerns are key poll issues in Sikkim. State’s sole lok Sabha seat is held by the Sikkim Democratic Front. Going by various opinion polls, the SDF is predicted to retain the seat.
Assam, which sends 14 members to the lok Sabha, is altogether a different case. Recurring flood and erosion problem, housing for the poor, welfare schemes for tea garden workers, Adivasis, backward classes and SHGs are the main issues dominating election campaigns in the State. For Muslim voters, who constitute about 30 per cent of the electorate and play a deciding role in at least six lok Sabha seats, protection from harassment in the name of detection and expulsion of illegal Bangladeshi migrants have been top poll issues since 1979, when a six-year-long anti-foreigners’ movement, led by the All Assam Students’ Union, began in the State.
This election is no exception. As per opinion poll, the Congress is predicted to win seven seats and the BJP five in the State.
(The writer is Deputy News Editor, The Pioneer)