Congress stalwarts must acknowledge that India under Modi has changed. Instead of finding faults with the ruling Government, they must define a constructive agenda of action for the country
Senior Congress leader Kapil Sibal’s article, ‘My India Has Changed’, carried in a national daily on August 15, signifies a journey man’s effort borne out of party duty rather than conviction. The familiar ranting against all initiatives of the Narendra Modi Government has an empty sound to it — a hollow ring. With selective amnesia, he chose to overlook the atrocities and pogroms committed during the long Congress rule as well as the abuse of investigating agencies. He found only “communal frenzy… expressed with violence” in the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) reign, a mere hyperbole in its myriad projects and schemes or foreign policy initiatives. One expects the venerable leader will sense a tinge of conscience, not to ignore the context and perspective of what Prime Minister Narendra Modi inherited when he assumed office in 2014.
let us see how the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-I Government rode on the surge generated by the NDA-I. While the former’s economic managers celebrated the gross domestic product (GDP) (at 2004-05 prices) decelerated from 9.5 per cent in 2010-11, to 6.2 per cent in 2011-12, to 5.0 per cent in 2012-13 — to reach a decadal low. Growth of gross fixed capital formation plunged from 15 per cent in 2010-11 to 4.4 per cent in 2011-12, and further to 1.7 per cent in 2012-13, entrepreneurs got increasingly miffed by pervasive environment of sleaze, policy instability, lack of will to govern and deliver.
Wouldn’t Sibal like to recall how the UPA indulged in fiscal profligacy, evident in its widening current account deficit, heavy public borrowing, persistent inflation, and weak currencyIJ On the eve of Narendra Modi’s coronation in May 2014, direct tax accruals were tepid, the sensex and nifty bearish — the biggest stocks eight per cent off their six-month peak and mid-caps down over seven per cent. As the National Sample Survey Office reported, the number of jobs created during the eight-year period from 2004-05 to 2011-12 aggregated just 23million vis-à-vis 50 million in the period 1999-2000 to 2004-05. The morass remained confounded with scams and scandals, a litany of 2G, commonwealth games, coalgate etc.
A large number of people in India and outside lamented how the country shot itself in the foot. In 2004, the US Central Intelligence Agency agreed with The Wall Street Journal that, by 2020, India would be an economic superpower. The Time magazine proclaimed that “the world’s biggest democracy is the next great economic superpower”. Alas, all this promise was squandered away. Nation’s sullen mood was aptly captured by The Economist: When “a caged tiger”, in fact, the elephant had learnt to fly, there followed years of drugged and fitful sleep; blight descended, with angst against effete, dysfunctional UPA Government, its lackadaisical governance, corrupt and venal. The nation needed strong, creative leadership in South Block. Modi changed the mood. Markets swung from gloom to boom.
The economy, bruised and battered in the ICU, but the Modi Government’s determination and dexterity helped it gain strength. Recovery, though fast and robust, would take time for it to sprint in terms of its potential. Unburdened by any dynastic or filial baggage, unscathed by sleaze or scandal among his colleagues, Modi infused hope and confidence in people’s hearts and minds. Within few months, world community started viewing India again as an economic opportunity, an important investment destination.
In terms of new GDP series, India’s growth declined to 5.6 per cent in 2012-13, 6.6 per cent in 2013-14 vs 8.3 per cent during the preceding nine years commencing in 2003-04. Under Modi’s watch, economy rose to 7.2 per cent in 2014-15, 7.9 per cent in 2015-16, 7.1 per cent during 2016-17. Inflation has fallen from eight per cent during January-April 2014 to well below four per cent now; fiscal deficit dropped from 4.5 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.5 per cent in 2016-17; rupee steadily strengthened; country’s market capitalisation currently aggregates two trillion dollars; foreign direct investment flows during last three years amounted to $156 billion; a record $56 billion in 2016-17 alone. As Make in India gains traction, local manufacturing of high-tech electronics moves apace. Indigenous manufacturing of myriad defence equipments is now poised to gather steam. Strangely, blinkered Congress spokespersons see only “signs of deep economic distress”!
Modi sarkar has been lending unprecedented impetus to infrastructure projects, especially those which remained stuck for long. A flurry of schemes and projects such as Swachh Bharat mission, Smart Cities, Digital India, Skill India, Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana have been unfolded with bewildering alacrity. The Jan Dhan Yojana, launched in August 2014, has helped open 280million new bank accounts, mostly for the deprived. By Aadhaar seeding, welfare entitlements are provided by bank transfer. Under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, around 20million below poverty line rural households receive liquefied petroleum gas. Technology-based e-Mandis and Fasal Bima Yojana aid farmers. Gram Jyoti Yojana aims at electrification of 18,452 villages by May 2018 and of 45million rural households by December 2018.
Modi rendered the entrenched lobbying industry redundant; the Planning Commission yielded place to Niti Aayog; plan and non-plan distinction in budget disappeared; 92-year-old separate railway Budget merged with the Union Budget; Budget presentation advanced to facilitate timely disbursement of funds; two decade old Foreign Investment Promotion Board disbanded; some 1,170 redundant laws repealed.
Among several legislative initiatives, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy code and Aadhaar Act, 2016 are expected to further Government’s social and economic agenda, as the much delayed Goods and Services Tax has been steered so diligently to fruition. Accusing the Government moving in haste and making “short-sighted compromises” for the GST, senior Congress stalwarts, in fact, seem to regret, why couldn’t they move with such exemplary deftness and flexibility, why didn’t they do it when they had the chanceIJ
Calling demonetisation “a carte blanche to the corrupt”, Sibal remains deliberately oblivious of the trail it has generated towards identifying the hoarders of ill-gotten money and addition of lakhs to the tax net. Post-50-day seismic churning of the economy in the wake of demonetisation, the amrit manthan, no doubt, generated some vish (poison) as it yielded amrit (nectar). The habitually argumentative buddhijivi kept pillorying Prime Minister, but the common men and women continued to repose faith in him. One would expect the critics among political parties to heed the recent verdicts of people’s own supreme court in a democracy.
Modi is not unaware that an aspiring and impatient India voted for a rupture with the past, to sweep away the cobwebs of bureaucratic and political lethargy and unleash country’s creative energies. He has proverbial miles to traverse. A plethora of social, economic and political ills perpetrated over last 70 years would not easily go. There’s no magic wand. Rent seeking minds abound, so also myriad parasitic institutions and agencies. Also, an assortment of obscurantists with a medieval mind-set keep vitiating the environment. Prime Minister himself has called for a moratorium on all divisive acts and avowals. Here a lot still needs to be done. Speaking for their party that has governed India most of the time since Independence, the Congress leaders in particular, need to define and articulate a constructive agenda of action for the country to look ahead.
(The writer is senior fellow, Asian Institute of Transport Development, and a commentator on social issues)