As India’s urban areas get excessively populated, experts are wondering how such urbanisation will handle future climate problems. Cities produce three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption
As 2016 draws to a close, it has served as a grim reminder of the worsening climatic conditions by being the hottest year on record since the late 19th century. While increased temperature levels became the new normal during this period, Nasa analyses of ground-based observations and satellite data show that the two key climate change indicators — global surface temperatures coupled with Arctic sea ice extent — broke numerous records through the first half of 2016.
Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880, according to scientists at Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The six-month period from January to June was also the planet’s warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature of 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late 19th century.
Before the temperature levels peaked in 2016, the five-year span of 2011 to 2015 has been the hottest period on record according to the detailed analysis on global climate published by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The increasingly visible human footprint on extreme weather and climate events is resulting in dangerous and costly impacts. The record temperatures during this period were accompanied by rising sea levels and sharp decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, continental glaciers and northern hemisphere snow cover.
These widespread developments and climate change indicators confirm the long-term warming trend caused by greenhouse gases. The period was also witness to carbon dioxide reaching a disturbingly significant milestone of 400 parts per million in the atmosphere for the first time in 2015, according to the WMO report which was submitted to the UN climate change conference. If utilised well, the WMO report of the five-year period can contribute to a better understanding of multi-year warming trends and extreme events.
The WMO report can also help Governments to implement the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change effectively, and more particularly the 2015 Paris Agreement, which provides a historic opportunity for the global community to act with greater urgency in curbing greenhouse gas emissions, fostering climate resilience and mainstreaming climate adaptation into national development policies. This is crucial for taking effective steps to counter the adverse impacts of global warming and implement measures that can help neutralise the damages inflicted by humans on the environment.
India too is feeling the impact of rising temperatures in the form of searing summers and unusually warm winters. Scientists at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) have opined that the country has turned hotter in the last two decades, and that the heat waves are projected to become more intense, have longer durations and greater frequency, thereby resulting in increased climate-related fatalities across the nation.
A heat wave condition prevails when the temperature rises to 40 degrees Celsius and more. For hill stations, the heat wave conditions are those where the temperature rises to above 30 degrees Celsius. Sky-rocketing temperatures across northern and southern India during 2016 have resulted in the deaths of more than 1,242 people. The high temperature related death toll could be much higher since a larger number of heat-related deaths in rural India go unreported most times.
One of the main reasons for the heat waves is the occurrence of El Nino, which takes place in the Pacific coast of South America, that adversely affects the Indian monsoon. El Nino also results in less rain, resulting in higher temperatures. Additionally, the increased levels of carbon dioxide have also made an already bad situation, worse. The carbon dioxide levels have risen by 40 per cent since pre-industrial times.
The result is that both the atmosphere and the ocean temperatures are going up. Glacial melting and increasing deforestation is also adversely impact weather cycles, thereby contributing to the overall problem.
The projections of a recent report by Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, both mid-term (2045 to 2065) and long-term (2081 to 2100), for South Asia and specifically for India, are hardly favourable. The report has warned that north and west India will face an increase in temperatures while south India will have an increase in tropical nights.
As Indian cities and urban areas continue to get excessively populated, scientists and urban planners have begun to question how increasing urbanisation will handle future climate problems, especially since cities produce three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption. India will have to find answers, and quickly.
(The writer is an environmental journalist)