The RJD chief has remained in politics and has controlled leverages of power despite having faced many court cases and even a conviction. But the present charges against him and his family members are grave and may put his dynasty into danger
Former Bihar Chief Minister and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief lalu Prasad is boxed in from all sides but does this mean that his political career is finishedIJ The jury is out, although he is known for his survival instincts. Despite several court cases and convictions, he has surprisingly sprung back in the State as well as at national politics, not once but many times.
For a man who has served as the Railways Minister and Chief Minister of Bihar, the next few months could be a test for his staying power. His opponents say that he is likely to stay this time as not only the RJD supremo but also the entire family is facing corruption charges.
Why is lalu Prasad survivingIJ He has the proverbial nine lives of a cat. In 1994, present Chief Minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, and George Fernandes formed an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). But in 1995, lalu Prasad came back in Bihar with a bang. After his conviction in the fodder scam in October 2013 and sentencing of five years in prison, he was able to come back in 2015 when his party made a strong comeback (the RJD got the highest number of MlAs in Bihar).
lalu Prasad has been banking on anti-BJP sentiments. He clearly considers himself to be the torchbearer against the so-called ‘communal politics’ of the BJP. As expected, lalu Prasad has accuse the Modi Government of pursuing ‘politics of vendetta against hima nd his family members.
Addressing RJD party workers on the 21st foundation day in Patna, lalu Prasad said last month: “The BJP wants to finish me as I want to finish the BJP.” He added. “They (the BJP) wants to cause fissures in the Opposition ranks because they know our combined strength can foil their 2019 mission.”
lalu Prasad came into the limelight in 1990 when he, as the Chief Minister of Bihar, stalled lK Advani’s ‘rath yatra’. Though the BJP ruled Uttar Pradesh for most of the 1990s, lalu Prasad never allowed the party to enter neighboring Bihar till 2005. He launched his party, the RJD, in 1997 when the IK Gujral Government refused to bail him out after the fodder scam.
When a court issued an arrest warrant against him, lalu Prasad resigned and nominated his wife, Rabri Devi, as his successor and ruled Bihar by proxy. lalu Prasad never returned as a Chief Minister, though he became a partner with the UPA in 2004 and became the Union Railway Minister.
It is this stint that is now under the scanner of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) for a deal involving two railways hotels. “After I was jailed, they (rivals) said lalu Prasad is finished,” the RJD supremo said at a rally in Chapra and vowed, “But I was not finished. I will finish only after finishing all communal and divisive forces.”
Second, lalu Prasad’s political career did not end even after he was sentenced to five years jail in 2013, as he remained relevant in politics. The then Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, came to his aide by approving an executive order to shield lalu Prasad from the apex court order on politicians holding office even when their appeals are pending. It was Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi’s action of tearing the Ordinance that aborted the move. lalu Prasad has appealed against the case and is on bail for now.
Meanwhile, relationship between lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar has seen ups and downs. After parting ways with lalu Prasad, Kumar’s politics has largely revolved around uniting non-Yadav backward votes against lalu Prasad’s Muslim-Yadav combination. Nitish Kumar won in 2005 in alliance with the BJP, and then again in 2010, but political compulsions made the two to come together to keep out the BJP in 2015. The Janata Dal(United)-RJD-Congress coalition emerged successful and it was the RJD, which won 80 seats; while the JD(U) got 71 seats; the Congress 27 seats and the BJP got 53 seats.
Third, lalu Prasad has remained politically relevant so far. The RJD’s vote share has been about 18-20 per cent in the last four elections, even after losing power in Bihar in 2005. In a State with three major parties — the JDU, the RJD and the BJP — to get 20 per cent vote share is no mean feat. Muslims and Yadavs, who form 30 per cent of Bihar’s population, consider lalu Prasad as their messiah.
Fourth, lalu Prasad is a fighter and a man of bluster. This is why within 12 hours of the CBI raid on his family, he thundered from Ranchi: “listen Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah. I shall fight your attempts to target me and my family members. And I will not let you destroy the grand alliance experiment in Bihar, come what may. I shall never bow down to you pressure tactics.” He is already busy preparing for the maha rally in August. The aim of this rally is to take the spectacularly successful mahagathbandhan experiment beyond Bihar and launch it on a national scale.
However, there is mistrust between lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar and the latter is moving towards the BJP again. To remain without power in the State as well as at the Centre will make lalu Prasad more vulnerable as Nitish Kumar will continue to be the Chief Minister with the support of the BJP.
In a worse scenario, he might also get convicted again in the four cases. This could lengthen his exile from electoral politics to beyond 2024. His plan of preparing his dynasty is also in danger. lalu Prasad is facing the biggest ever challenge now.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)