Erdogan is aiming to secure his political future in a country, which is seemingly not behind him. Still he forces people to pay obeisance to him. After the failed military coup against him last July, he has been pounding on the rebels, political opponents, the media and anyone whoever he thinks can be a threat to his regime. It is crystal clear that behind the great idea of changing the existing political system, he is just bolstering his strongman image
Turkey is all set to change its political system. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be armed with enough powers to decide the fate of the country if the proposed referendum goes well. More importantly, once done, this will change Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic. Political analysts say that this may be one of the most controversial political changes in a generation. But then, why is Erdogan conceiving the grand idea of testing the patience of his countrymenIJ What exactly does he need to make him all powerfulIJ How will a new Turkey
influence the political dynamics in the European UnionIJ let’s a have a look.
A new draft constitution would enormously increase the powers of President Erdogan. Plainly speaking, this move might receive all-party consensus. This was a constitution drawn up at the behest of the once all-powerful military after the coup of 1980, so it demands a significant change for making Turkey, marching ahead in a globalised Europe. This is what has been doing the rounds across the country. Truly, Erdogan is aiming to secure his political future in a country, which is seemingly not behind him. But he forces people to pay obeisance to him. After the failed military coup against him last July, he has been pounding on the rebels, political opponents, the media and anyone whoever he thinks can be a threat to his regime. It is crystal clear that behind the great idea of changing the existing political system, he is just bolstering his strongman image. This, he indirectly believes, will place him in a much better position to negotiate with the EU leadership.
The new constitution will bring numerous changes to Turkey. This will scrap the role of the Prime Minister and probably, two or more posts of Vice-Presidents will be created. The President will be the head of the State and the Executive. He would also retain his ties to his political party. He will enjoy massive powers to appoint ministers and judges, prepare the budget, and will have power to enact special laws by decree. Further, the President will have the sole power to declare a state of emergency and dismiss the entire Parliament. The Parliament would lose the power to scrutinise the ministers or propose any enquiry. However, the Parliament will have the power to impeach the President with the support of the two thirds of its members. The elections for both the office of the President and the Parliament will be held together in every five years. And interestingly, the presidential term will be limited to a maximum of two. Finally, the number of MPs will be increased from the current 550 to 600. Those who are supporting the reforms argue that this will help in streamlining the decision-making powers of the Government, particularly the President. This will also pave the way for a new Turkey to avoid unwieldy parliamentary coalitions which have hamstrung the country in the recent past. Indeed the existing system is simply holding back Turkey’s progress. Currently, there are two elected leaders — the President as the head of the State, and the Prime Minister, the head of the Government. And both of them are directly elected by the people. Hence in many cases, both the offices come in conflict while taking major decisions. But with the upcoming constitutional reforms, the President will have no hurdles as he will only appoint the Prime Minister. If he wins the referendum, he will have extraordinary powers and even more than what the US and French Presidents are enjoying today. This is a worrying signal for a country like Turkey plagued by sectarian politics, insurgency and, most importantly, constant threats from the ISIS and Kurdish militia. With new powers, he will have an edge to deal with the challenges from both within and outside the country.
But all is not well with Erdogan. His plan to hold rallies across Europe for garnering support from Turkish citizens for his proposed referendum has mostly snubbed by majority of these nations. Even EU President Donald Tusk said that the “Turks are detached from reality.” The ban imposed by European nations on Turkish rallies has been termed as racist by Erdogan. He has accused the Dutch Government of being “Nazi remnants” and a “banana republic”. He even said that the Netherlands have violated the Vienna Convention. When one of his ministers was barred from addressing a rally in Rotterdam, he was very infuriated. He came up with heated rhetoric, saying that the Dutch are responsible for carrying out the Srebrenica massacre of Muslims in Bosnia in 1995. Both Germany and Austria have also acted swiftly to stop the Turkish rallies. This shows how the Europeans are against a new move by Erdogan just to arm him with discretionary powers in the name of carrying out reforms. The only aim of these referendums is to bring a “yes vote” for the constitutional referendum to be held in April 16.
Why are the NATO members fighting among themselvesIJ It is very rare to see a fight between two or more NATO members the way it is happening between Turkey and the Netherlands. In fact, the very freedom of assembly has been rightly enshrined in the Article 11 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which all the EU member States have to respect. But then the authorities are allowed to impose restrictions if they believe the rally could pose threat to national security or public safety. In that case, the Dutch Government feared that a pro-Turkish campaign by its high profile ministers may whip up tensions across the country as the country was just heading for the national poll. However, unplanned and overtly political visits by foreign Government dignitaries are supposed to be an unwelcome breach of diplomatic protocol as well. The latest saga of fighting between Turkey and the rest of the EU members is indicating fresh deadlocks in the region. This will not be good both for Turkey and the EU or NATO members. The EU members should not forget that Turkey is a crucial ally and it should handle the country a bit sensitively.
Finally, will it be possible for Erdogan to win the referendumIJ At present he requires the support of the far right MHP to win the poll. But then for long the leader of the MHP, Devlet Bahceli, opposed a presidential political set up for his country. He even retorted once: “The Turkish nation has never allowed a Hitler and it will not allow Erdogan to get away with this”. He called it the recipe for “a Sultanate without a throne”. But so far arm-twisting and rumours that he would be offered a post of Vice-President has made all the changes. However, it is time for Erdogan to pursue his party to fall in the line. Meanwhile, the Centre left-CHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP parties are mounting their opposition to the proposed referendum by Erdogan. Besides these political handicaps, his controversial actions on the media, political opponents and suspected officials since the failed army coup last year have earned him nothing but distrust and a devilish look. How far his wild dreams will march Turkey will be worth watching in the days to come.
(The writer teaches Sociology at OP Jindal Global University in Sonepat)