The ruling party may not immediately dump its partners, but there is no doubt the latter have lost their clout as well as bargaining power
The 25-year old Shiv Sena-BJP break-up in Maharashtra confirms the long-term plan of the BJP to go beyond the allies and emerge as a dominant national party, eclipsing others. During the election rallies, both in Maharashtra and Haryana, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed the end of the coalition era in Indian politics.
Mr Modi as well as the BJP national president Amit Shah are moving quickly to occupy the political vacuum left by the Congress which faced a humiliating defeat not only in the 2014 lok Sabha poll but also in the subsequent two Assembly polls. Sure enough, the BJP may not immediately dump its partners, but there is no doubt that the allies have lost bargaining power in the absence of their relevance in the survival of the Modi Government.
There was a time when the BJP was an untouchable to many parties and it was Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the liberal face of the party, who encouraged allies in the late 90s, and even formed the BJP-led NDA Government with 24 partners in 1998.
Interestingly, even the Modi-led NDA today boasts of 29 parties, of which two have left. The allies were sought before the 2014 poll when the BJP was not sure of getting a majority of its own. The BJP is now adopting a new strategy that, instead of going for alliances, it imports key leaders from other parties, like Birendra Singh (Congress) Rao Inderjit Singh (Congress), Ram Kripal Yadav (Rashtriya Janata Dal) Upendra Kushwaha (Rashtriya lok Samata party) and Ajatshatru (National Conference).
After Mr Modi appeared on the national scene, things began to change. The first signal came when the Janata Dal (United) parted company with the saffron party. The gamble paid off for the BJP as it performed exceedingly well in Bihar and elsewhere while the JD(U) was humiliated. A demoralised Nitish Kumar was willing to even align with his bitter enemy lalu Prasad, and the unity helped them win the by-election.
After the Modi Government was formed, this trend of dispensing with allies became more evident. Emboldened by Mr Modi’s success, the party decided to go it alone in both Maharashtra and Haryana, and the gamble paid off once again. It was despite the fact that in both the States, the BJP did not have any charismatic leaders to project as the chief ministerial candidate. In both the States, the BJP has formed the Government after a creditable win.
The BJP parted company with the Haryana Janhit Congress led by Mr Kuldip Bishnoi, despite the fact that the BJP-HJC combine had won seven out of the 10 seats and polled 40.9 per cent of the votes. The BJP’s gamble paid off once again, as the BJP itself had not expected such a good result in Haryana where it formed the Government with a massive majority.
It was a bold gamble for the BJP to break-up with its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena. While BJP leader lK Advani would have liked the alliance to continue, he has no voice in the present Modi dispensation. Also, Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray had burnt his boats by bitterly criticising Mr Amit Shah and Mr Modi during the campaign. The alliance won 42 of the 48 lok Sabha seats in the State and registered a lead in as many as 231 Assembly segments. The BJP won 23 lok Sabha seats, while its alliance partners Shiv Sena and the Swabhimani Paksha won 18 and one respectively. Had the Sena-BJP alliance remained in the Assembly poll, it would have swept the polls. Still, it has been an advantage for the BJP as it has now emerged as the dominant party from being a junior partner in the State; the Sena has been pushed to the second position.
In the south, the BJP had been making efforts to find a foothold. It was able to do so only in Karnataka where it formed its first Government in the south in 2008, but lost the State in the Assembly poll. The BJP had to team up with smaller regional allies to make some impact, but winning 12 seats in 2014 lok Sabha has restored confidence.
In Tamil Nadu, the conviction of AIADMK chief J Jayalalithaa in a disproportionate assets case, the DMK’s problems and the Congress’s disappearance from electoral scene, indicate that the BJP is readying for a life without its NDA partners. The denial of invitations to NDA allies in Tamil Nadu — Mr Vaiko and Captain Vijayakanth — to Mr Modi’s dinner meet for NDA allies some time ago, is also being seen as a slight to the smaller regional parties.