While liberals may cry foul about the emergence of the BJP, saying that it is a dangerous trend for the country to move towards the Right, the key is in their hands. They need a strong leader to counter the saffron party
With the BJP spreading its tentacles all over the country, polarisation between secular parties and the Right-wing BJP is bound to rise. Seven decades of the left-of Centre Congress politics is changing with the rise of Right-wing politics. This is clear from the emergence of new Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath Yogi. But there are many more Adityanaths in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and the BJP stable.
The recent Assembly election results in five States indicate the rising power of the BJP in other regions, including the North-East, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The party is already looking to conquer other States which are going polls next year.
So, why are the liberals losing outIJ There can be no doubt. It is because the BJP is led by a charismatic leader, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has been able to engage the attention of the voters by his success in the 2014 lok Sabha and the subsequent Assembly polls, except in Bihar and Delhi.
Though many of his pet schemes are ‘work-in-process’, his connect with the people continues. Modi, who came from the RSS stable, embodies the past, present and future of Hindu nationalism. Although he came to power talking of development, he has an Hindutva agenda too.
Why is India turning to the RightIJ There are various reasons for this. Primarily, it is the failure of ‘secular’ parties, including the Congress and their disconnect with the changing profile of the voters. The BJP, which had just two lok Sabha seats in 1984, has now replaced the Congress as a pan-national party.
The saffron party ruled the country for six years from 1998 to 2004. However, it was not able to come back for the next 10 years, yielding place to the Congress-led UPA.
The arithmetic of the UPA worked in its favour. Also, people were disenchanted with the party. It was only in 2014 that the BJP emerged as the single largest party led by Modi. The BJP rules on its own or as a coalition partner in 17 States. The Congress is ruling in just four States and the left in just two States.
Second, the rise of the BJP means shrinking of secular space. The BJP expands only at the cost of the Congress, left and secular parties. Does it mean that the voters are disenchanted with secular parties and prefer the BJPIJ Or is it because the BJP has emerged as an alternative to the Congress and the third frontIJ The jury is out.
Third, the Congress lacks leadership, strategy and money power to counter the rise of the BJP. The third front concept, which pops up every now and then, too does not have a strong leader to counter the Right-wing parties. Unless there is a united Opposition to counter the BJP, it will continue to expand.
Fourth, the tendency to move towards the Right is becoming a global phenomenon from what is evident in the US, the UK and Europe. India is just moving in step with them. Right-wing parties in France, the Netherlands and elsewhere have called for their own Brexit-style plebiscites on EU membership. Officials in Slovakia, Estonia, Bulgaria and Poland have said they want to take only Christian asylum seekers or none at all.
Donald Trump becoming the US President this year and the UK voting for the exit from the EU provide some evidence. The trend is only continuing and it may do so in India too. Pendulum always swings from the left to the right.
Fifth, terrorism and the spread of jihadism in South Asia has become another reason for the rise of the BJP, which has vowed to end it. Added is the infiltration of Bangladeshi migrants who change the demography of North-East States such as Assam.
Sixth, the BJP is engaging the youth who are active on social media. Modi has been targeting 65 per cent of the population by offering them jobs and development while the Opposition is still clinging to the secularism versus Hindu fundamentalism narrative. This has to change if they want to displace the BJP.
Seventh, Modi and BJP president Amit Shah are trying their best to exploit Hindu sentiments, overtly or covertly. They are exploiting the majority apprehensions about the minority expansion successfully.
The Modi era now sees a Hindutva surge. The BJP has consolidated Hindu unity, going by the success in recent Uttar Pradesh poll results. Modi has added the pro-poor narrative to his success. He has also borrowed ideas from Indira Gandhi like the roti, kapda aur makaan and has promised all the three in his new schemes and his promise resonates with the poor because of its strong communication skills.
In short, so long as Modi continues the BJP’s march towards expansion and a bigger geographic spread, he will succeed. While liberals may say that it is a dangerous trend for the country to move towards the Right, the key is in their hands. Just as Modi has used caste and religion for his success, the liberals too should find a winning formula but for that they need a strong leader to counter Modi. Till then the country might swing towards the Right.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)