The Congress can revive if its leadership makes drastic structural changes. Easing out Chief Ministers may not be the solution
The Congress appears to be in a revamp mode after its humiliating rout in the lok Sabha poll. While the party needs a brutal surgery, the immediate plan seems to be to axe some of its Chief Ministers for the pitiable performance. Those facing the fire include Messrs Prithviraj Chavan (Maharashtra), Bhupinder Singh Hooda (Haryana) and Tarun Gogoi (Assam). Assembly elections are due in Haryana and Maharashtra this year. The question is: Will making these leaders a scapegoat be the cure for the chronically-sick partyIJ Congress president Sonia Gandhi is dilly-dallying about changing horses closer to the polls. There are also some in the Congress who feel that changing Chief Ministers just three months ahead of the State polls wouldn’t impact the results much.
The party was expected to do reasonably well but has, to the contrary, performed poorly in all the three States and elsewhere in the lok Sabha election. While the Chief Ministers have a major role in the good performance of the party, generally it is the Centre’s performance which is judged in parliamentary elections. And, popular outrage against the UPA got reflected in the lok Sabha poll result.
There is no doubt that in Assam, Mr Gogoi, who won the State elections thrice, is under attack from his detractors for the past two years. The attack has sharpened after the party won only three out of the 14 seats in the lok Sabha poll. Despite all efforts from Ms Gandhi to quell dissent, the demand for Mr Gogoi’s exit continues. Almost 45 out of the party’s 78 MlAs from the State led by Assam’s Education and Health Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, urged the high command for a change.
In Haryana, Mr Hooda is facing anti-incumbency and dissidence within the party. The Congress got only one seat in the general election. Former Union Minister Kumari Selja has predicted that if Mr Hooda is not removed the Congress will face an ugly defeat again. But Mr Hooda seems to have enough clout with 10, Janpath to survive.
The Congress has been in power in Maharashtra since 1999, winning three consecutive Assembly elections, but the period also saw a sharp decline in governance. The party is in coalition with the Nationalist Congress Party; pressure is mounting from NCP chief Sharad Pawar, as well from within the Congress, to remove Mr Chavan. Ever since the Congress’s drubbing in the lok Sabha election, rumours have been doing rounds about Mr Chavan’s exit. Maharashtra had seen several scams and witnessed rampant corruption, arrogant and unresponsive State administration, deteriorating law and order situation and farmers’ suicide.
Although Mr Chavan has accepted full responsibility for the defeat his detractors are baying for his head. Former Chief Minister of the State Narayan Rane has written a letter to Ms Gandhi demanding Mr Chavan’s replacement, while Mr Pawar has made it clear that he would prefer a Dalit Chief Minister, hinting at his one-time close associate Mr Sushil Kumar Shinde.
The Congress leadership also has to take a number of hard decisions. It must reflect critically and candidly on why the party has performed so poorly. Politically, the party is clearly set on a downward course. Superficial solutions will only accelerate its decline. There are some Congressmen who are dismayed that the party is still stuck with Mr Gandhi. So far he has failed to transform himself. If the Congress has to prepare a blueprint for its revival, the first step has to a real ‘election’ of a leader within the party.
The old-timers are seething with anger against Mr Gandhi’s coterie. After a month of feedback sessions, big changes are expected to begin in July that would impact the command of the All India Congress Committee and State units. The immediate challenges for the new teams will be Assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. A second line of leadership in States has to be built up to inspire the workers. People are telling the Nehru-Gandhis to sit tight and wait for Mr Modi to fail, but that is not the way forward. The ‘grand old party’ will find its feet again only with brutal structural changes.