Deeply worried by the Modi factor in Uttar Pradesh, Congress and SP are ganging up to contain the damage
What do the Assembly election results of four States mean for Uttar PradeshIJ On the face of it, nothing, because Assembly elections are fought on local issues and these issues vary from State to State. But this election was different. The results in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi have sent out two signals: First, aimed at the BJP leadership in the Gangetic belt, that the party can do well in the lok Sabha election. And second, an anti-BJP, anti-Congress political dispensation is possible provided it can motivate voters as the Aam Aadmi Party did.
What happened in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh was not unexpected. But what made poll pundits sit back and take note is the margin of victory in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan — two States which share borders with Uttar Pradesh. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP got 165 seats — 22 more than in the 2008 election — while in Rajasthan, the party docked 162 seats, a whopping 84 seats more than in the 2008 Assembly election. The incumbent Congress in Rajasthan had won 96 seats in 2008.
Such a huge margin of victory in these two States shows that the BJP has been able to penetrate deep into the rural areas. Some have even suggested that the minorities voted for the BJP and it was their vote which tipped the scale so heavily in favour of the party in these States. In Rajasthan, the BJP fielded four Muslim candidates and two of them won; in Madhya Pradesh, the party did well in the Muslim-dominated constituencies of Bhopal (East), Jabalpur (East), Betul and Khargaon. In the Bharatpur region that shares a boundary with Uttar Pradesh, the BJP routed the Congress. Similarly, in Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, the BJP swept the election.
In contrast, the performance of two major players in Uttar Pradesh — the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party — in this election was dismal. In Madhya Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party contested over 150 seats. It had four MlAs in the outgoing Assembly but drew a blank this time. While the BSP had seven MlAs in the 2008 poll, its tally came down to four. In Rajasthan too the BSP, that had won six seats in the 2008 election, could win just three, while in Chhattisgarh its tally was halved from two to one. On the contrary, the BJP won almost 66 per cent of the seats that went to polls in four States while the Congress got just 23 per cent seats.
This new trend has bolstered the confidence of the BJP’s leaders in Uttar Pradesh. The party believes that its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has been able to send the right message across to the people through his rallies. They believe that in the lok Sabha election, the BJP will penetrate rural areas of this politically-sensitive state. In the last election, the BJP had failed to make inroads into rural areas.
The BJP finds itself in a morass in Uttar Pradesh because its vote share has declined in the last two decades. In 1993, the party had a 33.53 per cent vote share, which gradually went down; in 1999 the party had a 27.64 per cent vote share. But in 2002 the vote share fell to 20.01 per cent. In 2004 it increased to 22.17 per cent but then plummeted to 16.97 per cent.
The party is now in an upbeat mood. They feel that Modi magic has worked in Uttar Pradesh. The opposition parties do not agree. The leaders of both these parties are on record to say there is no Modi wave in the country. The statements of the SP and the Congress leaders do not match their action. There are indications that the Congress and the SP can have a tacit understanding in Uttar Pradesh. This was evident the way the Congress, which has 29 members in the State Assembly, fielded Mr Pramod Tiwari as its nominee in the Rajya Sabha election with the support of the SP. When the election for the two Rajya Sabha seats was announced it was believed that the SP would get both the seats.
What necessitated this election was, first, the death of Mohan Singh, senior party leader, and second, the conviction of Congress leader Rashid Masood in a corruption case that led to his disqualification from the Upper House. The SP fielded Kanaklata Singh, daughter of Mohan Singh, as party candidate and left the second seat for the Congress.
The SP's popularity is on the wane. People voted it to power with the hope that young Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav will transform ‘Ulta Pradesh’ to ‘Uttam Pradesh’. The hopes have been dashed after Mr Yadav embarked on implementing ‘only-Muslim’ welfare projects. The law and order situation went from bad to worse. Over three dozen communal riots rocked the State — 13 of them in the last nine months. The SP knows its two-year rule has failed to enthuse people and the performance of the Government will not help the party to get the required number of seats in the lok Sabha election. So the party used the Rajya Sabha poll as a marriage of convenience to stitch an alliance with the Congress.
There is another political motive behind this move. The SP is harping on the formation of a Third Front post the lok Sabha election. The success of the AAP in Delhi has bolstered the SP’s belief that people can go for an anti-Congress and anti-BJP party. The Congress could support a Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Third Front in return for SP's gesture towards the Congress. This they believe is a perfect quid pro quo.
iaHIJ] IJ]ntry-region>. The Russian Federal Migration Service chief Konstantin Romodanovsky confirmed this in a December meeting with the Russian Human Rights Commissioner. He said: “Unfortunately, more cases of intolerance and xenophobia can be observed, which eventually leads to an escalation of inter-ethnic disputes”. Then, he went on to blame the foreigners for the tensions.
The European Union is another burning example of social tension as well. Today, it is synonymous with unemployment, riots, inhuman working conditions and deteriorating lifestyles — all thanks to the availability of cheap immigrant labour. This was precisely the reason why France rejected the EU Constitution. The influx of Polish workers, who compete with French nationals for employment is one of the main reasons why xenophobia is increasing in France.
What is the solutionIJ It starts with Governments and global institutions realising that one cannot praise globalisation and be blind to the consequent issues of xenophobia, which leads to civil unrest. Governments opening up their economies have to balance the effect of immigrant labour on the local population. Giving equal rights to an immigrant can be a solution, only if the native community does not perceive this as being disadvantaged. At the same time, prejudice against immigrant communities only work to destroy the social fabric of the nation.
The current form of globalisation is to be changed, then Governments have to understand that globalisation cannot be viewed only through the economic lens, but has to be considered through the social, cultural and nationalist lenses as well.
(The writer is a management guru and honorary director of IIPM Think Tank)