A historic achievement on July 31 closes a bitter episode and opens another. Watch this space for water wars, capital wrangles and new State demands
History will see Telangana, the 29th state of the Republic, as an example of how an insensitive and arrogant ruling class can create so much frustration and alienation that the bifurcation of a big state becomes an unavoidable panacea.
Telangana state, promising to take shape within four to six months, is result not only of a protracted and tough struggle and massive sacrifices by the people of the region but also of the never ending misdeeds of the Andhra-Seema politicians in riding roughshod over a people with a distinctive linguistic-cultural identity.
Volumes have been written and massive data has been generated on the political and economic injustices heaped on the people of Telangana over the past five decades. The failure of the Andhra-Seema political elite in winning the hearts and minds of the people who they claimed were part of their Telugu identity holds out lessons for ruling cliques elsewhere.
The central leadership of Congress, right from Jawaharlal Nehru, played no mean part in perpetuating the injustices on the people of Telangana. Successive central dispensations did business only with the powerful Andhra lobby. Sonia Gandhi may be held responsible for dragging her feet over the issue since 2004 even after using Telangana support for her UPA-1 government. The demand for Telangana was packed into President Abdul Kalam’s maiden address to Parliament in June 2004.
Sonia’s game plan
The Opposition has described the July 31 decision as realpolitik, suggesting that there were electoral motives in Sonia Gandhi’s head. They are not wrong. In a state which had given 33 lok Sabha seats to Congress in 2009 it was reduced to facing one of two options — a wipeout in 2014 in all the three regions of Andhra Pradesh or hope for a miracle by delivering on its old promise of Telangana at least in one of the regions. Sonia opted for the second with the fond hope that a new popularity crest could result resulting in winning most of the 17 lok Sabha seats in the 10 districts of the new state.
The BJP could try to garner some credit because it too had articulated support for Telangana. However, there are two problems. It had messed up its game by going back on promise of Telangana in 1999 to please its partner, Telugu Desam. Second, the party has lost a considerable part of its traditional base in the region and was yet to recover it. And now the NaMo factor - its efficacy is a big question.
Administrative questions
Other major players,Telugu Desam and YSRCP, have little to save face. TDP opposed Telangana till a defeated Chandrababu Naidu reversed the position in 2009. YSRCP, the legacy of YS Rajasekhar Reddy, supported Telangana only to reverse it after the CWC decision. Both will be vying for garnering support in Andhra-Seema state, likely to retain the name of Andhra Pradesh. They will also seek to win the majority of 25 lok Sabha seats in that region.
That is about politics. Administratively, dividing a large state with a population of more than 8 crore is going to be a nightmare. Ensuring equitable sharing of resources and assets, river waters, power generation, revenue and capital assets and deciding the future of the state capital Hyderabad will be among the big challenges and obstacles Congress led UPA government will have to tackle More than the emotional factor, the economic challenge is in making the people of Andhra-Seema stubborn in demanding a permanent share in Hyderabad. Unfortunately for them, politics can change, geography cannot. The city of Hyderabad, which has been the target of massive migration from all over Andhra Pradesh over the last six decades and where the majority of government jobs were cornered by migrants from Andhra-Seema, is nowhere contiguous to either Andhra or Rayalaseema. Their geographic borders are at least 200 Km away in all directions. That makes the idea of making Hyderabad a permanent joint capital of the two states untenable.
The strongest opposition to Telangana state, because it will entail losing control or access to Hyderabad, is not coming from ordinary Andhrites but from two classes. The politician-bureaucrat-industrialist nexus which does not want to lose the golden goose. Second is the powerful lobby of Andhra-Seema employees who have a lion’s share in jobs in Hyderabad and Telangana. Hence the idea of making Hyderabad a Union Territory. The UPA is not expected to be averse to the suggestion, Telanganites may never accept and it will keep the pot boiling. For Telangana, Hyderabad is every thing as this has been the pivot of all the economic development and progress.
Geographically Telangana, with ten districts, will be spread over an area of 114,840 sq.Km, making it small only in name. It will have a population of more than 35 million. Hyderabad city, known as Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation will have spread of 620 sq.Km and 7.5 million people.
The real fight over Hyderabad city is over its revenue potential. The city generates Rs 40,000 crore in annual revenue, almost 55 percent of the total of Andhra Pradesh. Even the central government gets 65% of its total revenue of Andhra Pradesh, amounting to
Rs 35,000 crore, from the city. The city also generates Rs 15,000 crore as local taxes.
Hyderabad, the prize
The city also showcases world class infrastructure which include the private sector international airport (developed by an Andhra based company), an eight-lane outer ring road around the city and an upcoming metro railway.
Justifiably, Andhrites are refusing to let go Hyderabad arguing they too had a share in making the city a golden goose and want to benefit from its future.
The Centre is making an attractive offer of developing a new capital at par with Hyderabad. It was estimated to cost Rs 1 lakh crore, almost equal to the state’s annual budget. Till then Hyderabad would serve as a temporary capital of Andhra state.
Andhra Pradesh already has two major cities — Vijaywada and port city Visakhapatanam — but none with the competence of being an equal of Hyderabad. Vijaywada is too congested and Visakhapatanam is located in a remote corner of the state. The location of new capital itself has the potential to split the Andhra and Rayalaseema camps.
The Rayalaseema people want the state capital to come back to Kurnool, which enjoyed the status till 1956. Andhra wants a new capital to be developed somewhere between Guntur and Ongole, on the highway to Chennai. There is a caste angle too. The Kammas want it in Andhra, the Reddys in Rayalaseema, while the Kapus, emerging as the third force, will prefer it in Godavari belt.
The sharing of water from the rivers Godavari and Krishna will also be a tricky issue. The people of Rayalaseema and Andhra were feeling threatened that they will not have a free run in terms of water utilisation they had till now. The Krishna could turn in to battle field for water. The two major projects in the basin Srisailam and Nagarjunasagar largely benefit Andhra and to some extent Rayalaseema. They can become a bone of contention in the future. But Telangana proponents have said that there can be a central government mechanism to ensure equitable sharing of waters as well as power as happened in case of other states.
Clearly, Telangana is poised to push the Telagu region of India into a new vortex.
(The writer is Special Correspondent, The Pioneer, in Hyderabad)