Both the BJP as well as the UPA, are looking up to the presidential poll as some kind of an indication as to where the winds will turn in the 2019 lok Sabha election. Simultaneously, the race to the Raisina Hill is also a test of Opposition unity
It is certain that the low profile of the NDA’s presidential candidate, Ram Nath Kovind, will be the next tenant of the Rashtrapathi Bhavan. The incumbent President, Pranab Mukherjee, will retire on July 24, after the poll takes place on July 17. If Kovind wins, his election will be historic because it will be for the first time that a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh man will be presiding over the Raisina Hill.
Former Bihar Governor Kovind, a low profile Scheduled Caste leader, was a surprise candidate of the BJP. However, the Opposition has fielded former lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar, another Scheduled Caste, as its presidential nominee. This has made the election a backward class vs backward class contest. But one thing is certain that no matter who wins, India will have a Scheduled Caste President.
The presidential poll this time has several angles. Politically, it is the ruling NDA vs the Opposition, led by the UPA. It has a caste card. This was played in 2007 polls too when the Congress, led the UPA, pulled out Pratibha Patil (Shekhawat) as its choice while Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat contested as an independent, backed by the BJP. It was a Shekhawat versus Shekhawat fight, which divided the Rajput votes. It is also an ideological fight as Meira Kumar has admitted. There is a gender aspect too. Although, the post of the President was considered as ornamental, it still evokes public interest.
The electoral college comprises of elected members of the lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha and the Members of the legislative Assemblies (MlAs). There are 784 Members of Parliaments and 4,114 MlAs. The vote values differ based on a formula.
As of now, Kovind is set for a comfortable victory and may get seven lakh votes of the 10,98,903 votes of the Electoral College. On the other hand, Meira Kumar may end up with four lakh votes despite the support of regional parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Trinamool Congress and the Communist Party of India-(Marxist).
The fence-sitters like the Aam Aadmi Party, the Indian National lok Dal and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen and some independents have not yet opened their cards. Which way they will tilt, depends on the campaign strategy of Kovind and Kumar both. Interestingly, no one can surpass the record of Rajendra Prasad who got 99 per cent of the votes in 1957 while Sarvapalli Radhakrishnan got 98 per cent of the votes in 1962 polls. KT Narayanan won 95 per cent in 1997 and Abdul Kalam won 90 per cent of the votes in 2002.
The polls may turn out to be the closest electoral contest since 1969, when VV Giri was pitted against Neelam Sanjiva Reddy. That was the most noted contest when Indira Gandhi called for a conscience vote securing victory for independent candidate VV Giri against the official Congress candidate Sanjiva Reddy backed by the old guards.
Rajendra Prasad was the first President who held the post without a contest in 1950 but faced contests in 1952 and 1957. But those were the days when the Congress was held in high esteem after it won freedom for the country. The second time it happened was when Sanjiva Reddy was elected unopposed during the seventh presidential poll. The election, caused by the sudden death of serving President Fakhruddin Ali Ahmed, saw 37 candidates filing their nominations, of whom, 36 were disqualified. This led to Reddy’s unopposed victory on July 21, 1977. At all other times, there have been contests and since 1997, there have been direct contests.
KR Narayanan became the first Scheduled Caste President of India, winning one of the most one-sided presidential polls by defeating his opponent, former Chief Election Commissioner, TN Seshan, by securing more than 90 per cent votes. Will Kovind be able to repeat this featIJ
It depends upon the electoral management of rival candidates but the contest is close. The effort of the BJP will be to break the Opposition ranks and if it succeeds, Kovind may get more votes than the NDA strength. The NDA has secured its flock and also added some non-BJP parties like the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, the Biju Janata Dal, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party.
The UPA is more vulnerable than the NDA, as already cracks have appeared in the UPA ranks. Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has broken Opposition unity by supporting Kovind who had been the Governor of Bihar and with whom Nitish Kumar had good equations.
Nitish Kumar has been showing nervousness about the continuation of the Janata Dal (United)-RJD-Congress coalition as he fears that the RJD supremo, lalu Prasad, might pull out of the coalition any time. That is why he is leaning towards the BJP, which has secretly indicated that it would come to his rescue in case of need. Nitish Kumar had earlier supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation while the Opposition was critical of it. The Congress has chosen Meira Kumar as she is from Bihar and is the daughter of the tall Scheduled Caste leader Jagjivan Ram. Nitish Kumar is embarrassed because he has chosen to go with the NDA but has claimed that the daughter of Bihar was chosen only to lose.
The NDA as well as the UPA is looking at the presidential contest as an indication of the 2019 lok Sabha poll. The BJP is upbeat because it has been going from strength to strength in the past three years, winning most Assembly elections, except Bihar and Delhi. A good margin in the presidential poll will send a signal to the next two years Assembly polls in eight States. The presidential polls are a test for the Opposition unity and it is to be seen whether it can remain united.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)