Will the RJD survive, will it come out more stronger, which party will cash in on lalu’s absence from active politics, will lalu’s core M-Y vote bank switch over to any other party — answers lie in how the RJD capitalises on lalu’s conviction during the forthcoming lok Sabha polls
After the lugubrious RJD president, lalu Prasad, was convicted and sent to jail for 5 years in a fodder scam case, political pundits across Bihar and outside the State started speculating about Bihar’s political future: will the RJD survive; will it come out more stronger; who will command the RJD; which party will cash in on lalu’s absence from active politics; will lalu’s core M-Y vote bank switch to any other party; and above all, is lalu’s incarceration the final fall of India’s greatest showman of political theatricsIJ
Explanations and analyses vary with individuals, but what remains enduring is that writing lalu’s political obituary at this moment will be a premature exercise, as he himself, once said: “none dies in politics forever.”
We all know how a student leader from a poor family of Gopalganj, lalu Prasad, had started his political career against all odds and how the rank and file of the RJD chose him for the Chief Ministership in 1990. The charismatic mass leader successfully projected himself as a messiah of social justice and championed the caste politics. Famously known for his rustic wit, oversized kurta with loose pajama strings and simpleton hair-do, lalu Prasad dominated a long political journey for over two decades. There was a time when Bihar was synonymous with lalu’s reign and regale.
Then came a historic moment of 1996. The multi-crore fodder scam hit the headlines and the very next year, the self-proclaimed Raja of Bihar had to go to jail but not before securing the CM seat for his unlettered wife, Rabri Devi. Many had written his political obituaries at that time, but he not only came out of the jail riding on an elephant with band-baja amid thousands of followers, he bounced back in the next Assembly election.
Again in 2001, he was incarcerated, but he came out retaining his rustic wit and political spirit. “Jab tak rahega samose mein aaloo, tab tak rahega Bihar me lalu”, he said, and started running the Rabri Government from under a mango tree at the Chief Minister’s bungalow. Protected by his two infamous yet ubiquitous lieutenants, brothers-in-law Sadhu and Subhas Yadav, the RJD supremo continued to rule the State de facto.
Earlier, his regime was accused of the lack of governance but later Bihar aggravated into the proverbial, “an area of darkness”. Chaos, confusion, outlaw and disorder prevailed everywhere prompting the Patna High Court to term the RJD reign as “Jungle Raj”. Bihar had become the much ridiculed State, and someone had aptly remarked, “the safest place to run away from”. Disenchanted voters then ended the lalu-Rabri era in November 2005, giving birth to the NDA Government, under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. The Raja was finally dethroned and Bihar reportedly celebrated its second Independence.
But, the master of caste politics, lalu, was not out of the race. His M-Y (Muslim and Yadav) support base, though on wane, remained loyal to him. He got a sizeable vote share in 2009 Assembly poll, though the number of seats was meager 22. He cried foul initially but later accepted the voters’ choice: “I’m down but not out yet.”
Preoccupied with his daughters marriage and ever-haunting fodder scam cases, lalu Prasad was waiting for his time. And, it came with a split between the ruling NDA partners in Bihar: BJP and JD(U). Gradually lalu Prasad has been consolidating his M-Y vote bank. His party won the prestigious Maharajganj lok Sabha poll and the result boosted the party’s morale.
Then the inevitable happened on September 30: he was convicted in a fodder scam case and sent to jail. He also ceased to be an MP in view of the recent Supreme Court order. lalu became the loner. And, the biggest worry for him is that the lok Sabha election is just six months away and unlike previous occasions his party is not in power when he is incarcerated.
“RJD will definitely face a major leadership crisis in the days to come and I’m also not sure whether the party will remain united against the backdrop,” says political commentator Prof Nawal Kishore Chaudhury. Prof Chaudhury also doubts that this time party leaders would accept Rabri Devi or anyone from the family as their leader. “Since 1997 much water has flown down the Ganga,” he made his cryptic remark.
However, another political observer of the State and a former journalist, Sreekant, is of the opinion that it is too early to write lalu Prasad off. “He has been a big caste leader and still enjoys support of Yadavs. His Yadav vote bank is intact. Yes, his Muslim vote bank has been dented a bit by JD(U),” says Sreekant, who has also written a number of books on caste and electoral politics in Bihar. But when asked whether lalu Prasad and his party can withstand his long absence from political arena, Sreekant says: “It all depends on for how long will he be inside the jail and how his core committee of party leaders move in his absence. We’re keeping our fingers crossed.”
A similar reaction came from senior State BJP leader and former Minister Giriraj Singh, who said that those who were thinking lalu Prasad’s vote bank would shift in his absence are not living up to the ground realities. However, the grim question is who will lead the party in the upcoming lok Sabha polls.
RJD leader and party MP from Vaishali, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh, who was earlier said to have objected to Rabri Devi or any of lalu’s sons taking over the reins, said every member of the RJD would become lalu Prasad and will work under lalu’s guidance and leadership.
The party is still claiming to have kept Muslim vote bank intact. “One can’t become a secular leader by wearing a cap. You cannot fool all the members of a community all the time. What happened in Maharajganj bypoll where Muslims voted for the RJD in large number,” claims RJD leader Ghulam Gaus. Other senior leaders like Rajya Sabha member Ramkripal Yadav are obliviously speaking in the same tune.
However, the argument of Prof Nawal Kishore Chaudhury seems more logical. “Muslims do tactical voting and they would vote for defeating the BJP. In this case they would either go with JD(U) or with Congress but not with RJD,” explained Prof Chaudhury.
However, the heir apparent, Tejaswi Yadav, who accompanied his father up to the jail gate, has something else to offer. “I don’t understand why such talks are making rounds in the media when our leader lalu Prasadji remains there.” lalu Prasad, of late, has been grooming Tejaswi Yadav as his political successor.
Although, both Tejaswi and his mother Rabri Devi have reiterated that they do not have any lust for power or post, it will be difficult for the party to lead without a functional head. Nevertheless, as far as voters are concerned, local reports suggest that RJD vote share would not decline, maybe because of sympathy for the leader.
The party’s core committee is meeting on Sunday at Rabri Devi’s official residence to chalk out the future strategies and mull over the combinations and calculations. The safe bet, indeed, is to convince the voters that their leader is a victim of larger conspiracies by parties like the Congress, the BJP and the JD(U).
Only time will tell whether lalu Prasad’s incarceration will block his party’s recent bid to gain the lost ground or the party will gradually slip into political
oblivion, as the JD(U) is already on prowl to poach “good leaders of the party”.
However, the bitter truth we have seen in India is: sympathy wipes of all misdeeds of a political party. let us wait to see how the RJD capitalises on lalu’s conviction during the forthcoming lok Sabha polls.