New Delhi feels that if US forces withdraw from Afghanistan without defeating the Taliban and the Al-Qaeda, it will allow Pakistan and the Taliban to not only gain more power there but also have a pro-Pakistan, anti-India regime
The war against global terrorism and action against the Taliban in Afghanistan began with wide domestic and international support. But due to the difficulties in achieving the aim of a stable Afghanistan, and growing public despair and disenchantment, the US is now searching for ways and means to end its involvement and withdraw its troops.
Historically, it has been seen that the people support the state’s military intervention in other countries only until the losses, in terms of manpower and money, remain insignificant. This was the case for the US during the Vietnam War, for the erstwhile Soviet Union in Afghanistan, and for India in Sri lanka.
Due to the military debacles associated with these wars, and limited exit options, each one of these powers had to broker deals with the warring groups for a respectable withdrawal of their forces from these regions, even without achieving the objectives for which the military intervention was launched or planned.
This can be gauged from the fact that, for seeking a respectful withdrawal from the Vietnam War, America had to work through its Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s formula of force and diplomacy. This only brought about relative satisfaction of all parties because complete satisfaction of one faction was likely to leave others highly dissatisfied and ready for war.
So in the exit strategy planned for the Vietnam War, every group got something, but not everything it had aspired, while America got a withdrawal from Vietnam with honour.
This scenario is now being repeated in Afghanistan where America is looking for its exit strategy in a war with no substantive gains. The increasing casualties and high cost of the war have made it difficult for America to sustain its military operations. Therefore, it wants to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan as soon as possible.
The country has become a battleground where all the regional states like India, Pakistan, China and Russia have high stakes and are competing with one another to establish their hold and influence once the US forces have withdrawn. Therefore, to search for an honourable exit strategy or formula which can ensure peace and stability, and provide relative satisfaction to all the factions, has become important for America.
US Secretary of State John Kerry during his recent visit to Afghanistan also made it clear that the Status of Forces Agreement, which is currently under negotiation between the US and Afghanistan, should provide for exclusive American criminal jurisdiction over the US personnel. The US aims to ensure protection of the constitutional rights of its personnel in foreign lands.
The issue of a right trial in US military courts for America troops stationed in Afghanistan can break the deal that is being negotiated. It is estimated that after the withdrawal of active troops from Afghanistan in 2014, there will be 5,000 to 10,000 US military personnel left in Afghanistan, to advise and train the Afghan troops.
Sofa will protect the rights and privileges of such US personnel in a country known for its barbarian laws and practices, and at the same time deny the Afghan Government jurisdiction over crimes committed by US military personnel against Afghan citizens while serving in Afghanistan.
This suggests that if the deal doesn’t come through, and American and Nato troops remain outside of the arena, and, therefore, are unable to oversee the distribution of aid from the US Congress and European Parliament, the West might cancel its financial assistance to Afghanistan after the withdrawal of their troops.
So far as India and Pakistan are concerned, both aspire for a good relationship with Afghanistan. A friendly Government in Afghanistan can help India achieve various objectives like developing new trade routes, connecting to Central Asia’s vast energy reserves, making use of Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth as well as checking Pakistan’s influence and Islamic militancy.
Pakistan, on the other hand, considers Afghanistan its natural ally and brother, as both not only share a long border but a majority of Muslim population with close ties. Due to these factors, both India and Pakistan are extending help to Afghanistan to woo Kabul to their side.
However, the post-US withdrawal scenario is making India jittery. New Delhi feels that if US forces withdraw from Afghanistan without defeating the Taliban and Al- Qaeda, it will allow Pakistan and the Taliban militants to not only gain more power in Afghanistan but also install a pro-Pakistan Taliban-style Government that will expectedly be hostile to New Delhi.
(The writer is professor of Political Science, HNB Garhwal University, Srinagar, Garhwal, Uttarakhand)