BJP President Amit Shah has the Prime Minister’s support. He must make sure that his image of a ‘doer’ remains for the next term
Bharatiya Janata Party president Amit Shah is all set to head the party for a second term. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has given the nod, and a formal announcement is expected soon. If elected for a second term, Mr Shah’s new term will end in January 2019, the year when the next lok Sabha election will take place.
All big-wins, like the massive sweep in the 2014 lok Sabha poll and the subsequent win in Assembly elections in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra, were accredited to Mr Shah. He was touted as the ‘man of strategy’ until his decline when the BJP lost the Delhi Assembly poll in February 2015 and Bihar in November. The fact that he is getting a second term shows that his mixed report card did not affect his chances of continuity.
Mr Shah is still the most trusted man of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and as long as he enjoys the latter’s confidence, nobody can harm him. In any case, he is just completing the term of Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh and he did not have a full term.
What does a second term mean for Mr ShahIJ First, it is clear that with the support of Mr Modi, and the RSS, murmurs within the party will die down once he is re-elected. Ever since he took charge as the party president, he has run the organisation in his own way. Some leaders in the party have also felt that he has been high-handed.
While he successfully sidelined the old guard, including BJP leaders lK Advani, Murli Manohar Joshi and Yashwant Sinha, he was unable to keep a check on discordant voices of leaders like Shatrughan Sinha and Kirti Azad.
Second, his re-election is a signal of continuity, which might be good for the organisation. The challenges before Mr Shah are now formidable and tougher than his first term. While he continues to enjoy the support of key members, he should re-invent himself and change his style of functioning. He will have to be more flexible, more tactical and mobilise support from all sides.
Third, the BJP is at a disadvantaged position in seven States which will vote either this year or early next year. In light of this the immediate test for Mr Shah is huge. Five States, including West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry are going to polls this summer. The BJP is not a big player in any of these States.
While it is trying to expand in West Bengal, it will be good if it is able to get a few more seats in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In Assam, there is a possibility of the party doing well with a winning coalition.
2017 is the most crucial, with Uttar Pradesh and Punjab going to polls. Preparations have to begin this year itself. After all, the 2014 lok Sabha win was possible only due to the party’s stellar performance in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP won a whopping 73 seats out of 80 seats in 2014, but since then it lost ground in almost every poll, from the local bodies to by elections. Mr Shah may have to re-work his strategies but the challenge is, how far will he go to do this and to what extent will he compromise.
Fourth and most important, a lot depends on how much Mr Shah is able to retain Prime Minister Modi’s trust in the new term.
Fifth, will the Modi- Shah duo change its attitude to the old guard and re-start dialogue with them or seek their guidance —and if so, to what extentIJ
Sixth, what kind of strategy will the BJP adopt in the coming yearsIJ Is it going to be more liberal or hard line or a combination of bothIJ Uttar Pradesh is critical for the BJP and the party seems to be returning to the Ram temple issue, eyeing the 2017 Assembly election.
Above all, Mr Shah has to choose his new team which will be able to create confidence within the party and among the cadre. So far, he has succeeded in his membership drive and made the BJP overtake the Congress, by emerging as the single largest party in the world. His organisational skills have come in for praise.
Mr Shah has to make sure that his image of a ‘doer’ continues in his second term. If the BJP wants to retain power in 2019, preparations have to begin now. The skills lie in overcoming obstacles and for this, the Modi-Shah combine needs not only a good strategy but good luck too.