Catalonia’s bid for independence has left Spain reeling. While the independence referendum continues, what is sure is that regardless of the outcome, Catalonia will be the loser in more ways than one
At the European Parliament session of October 4 on the unfolding crisis in Spain, former Belgian Prime Minister, Guy Verhofstadt said, “…none of us needs to give any lessons on democracy to Spain.” His sentiments were echoed by virtually all representatives of the European Union with regards to the Spanish Government’s handling of the situation following the illegal referendum on Catalonian independence held on October 1, which has launched the country into political and economic turmoil.
The referendum, called by Catalonia’s autonomous Government, the Generalitat, was not recognised by the Spanish Government or the European Union since it was in violation of the Spanish Constitution and was deemed illegal by the Spanish constitutional court.
Nowhere has the fallout of the catalán referendum been felt more strongly than in Catalonia itself. The market reacted to the political uncertainty in Europe’s fourth largest economy, where an immediate drop in trading led the two largest banks in the country — Caixa Bank and Banco Sabadell — to voluntarily shift their headquarters out of the Catalonian capital, Barcelona, in an attempt to pacify the clients.
Within 48 hours, the majority of the Catalonian economy had announced its decision to move its bases out of Catalonia, including leading companies in the stock market, such as Gas Natural and Aguas de Barcelona, as well as numerous small and medium level businesses.
This sudden exodus from Spain’s financial capital comes amidst uncertainty following assertions by the leader of the Generalitat, Carles Puigdemont, that he would declare independence “within days”, depending on the outcome of the referendum, which was a foregone conclusion, plagued with irregularities and held in plain defiance of the Madrid Government.
Meanwhile, many Catalonian companies are already seeing a downward trend in sales, one that is likely to spiral further in the eventuality of a declaration of independence, should the rest of Spain decide to boycott products of Catalonian origin.
Barcelona, one of the most popular tourist destinations in Spain, is also likely to suffer losses in this sector, amid political uncertainty and fears of violence. American Airlines had recommended people to avoid traveling to Barcelona till October 13 and cruise ships are said to be navigating away from the city’s popular port.
But these are only current ramifications. let us for a moment indulge in Catalan President Carles Puigdemont’s fantasy. If Catalonia were to declare independence, the crisis for Spain’s most prosperous region would only have begun.
A session of the European Parliament made it abundantly clear that the European Union will side with its member state and would not recognise the legitimacy of an independent Catalonia, founded unilaterally and illegally. This would signify that Catalonia would be without currency, out of the Schengen area, no longer a beneficiary of the Central European Bank, devoid of trade agreements with European countries and with a debt of nearly 77 billion Euros.
Even as Puigdemont re-affirmed his intention of declaring independence in the coming week during an interview with Spanish news channel TV3 telecast, the silent majority in Catalonia and elsewhere in Spain, took to the streets in a rare but potent show of solidarity for the unity of the country. In Barcelona, the protest comprised an estimated 9,50,000 people, including members of several political parties and well-known figures such as the former President of the European Parliament, Josep Borrell and Nobel laureate Mario Vargas llosa. The protest showed the division within Catalonia with protestors carrying signs that read, “Enough. let’s return to sanity” and “Catalonia is Spain”.
Similar, albeit smaller protests were held in Madrid as well as in other countries the world over, with a large Spanish presence, a clear indication of the fragmented views among cataláns themselves.
Spain’s Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, whose Government has been highly criticised for mishandling the Catalonian separatist movement which has been simmering for several years, has held his ground, asserting categorically that his Government will not permit Catalonia to break away.
Should Puigdemont declare independence, the Government would most likely invoke the heretofore unused Article 155 of the Constitution, suspending all powers of the autonomous Government and calling for fresh elections.
Regardless of what happens, it is clear that Spain will come out far more unscathed from this existential crisis than Catalonia.
Economists and political commentators alike have been painting a gloomy picture of an independent Catalonia, drawing inevitable comparisons to Brexit. With neither international recognition, economic capability nor popular support to be able to sustain its separatist aspirations, they warn of irreversible consequences and are virtually begging Puigdemont to publicly withdraw his stated proposal to declare Catalonian independence. As things stand, Catalonia’s independence bid has underscored its dependence on Spain.
(The writer is a former correspondent of the Spanish News Agency EFE and has worked extensively with Spanish and latin American media)