The recent volcanic eruption in the Indonesian Island of Bali is once again creating fear across the region. Interestingly, the volcano in Mount Agung is recorded as just one of the 127 active volcanoes in this island nation.
Indonesia is known as the most volcano-pocked country in the world. What the whole world has witnessed in Bali is just the tip of the iceberg as Indonesia has a long history of having disasters related to volcanoes and earthquakes. Although the volcano in Mount Agung started erupting on November 25 this year, the disaster management authorities of the country started sending to the locals warning signals about the possible after-effects of volcanic activities even around two months ago in September. In the meantime, the authorities have raised the state of alert to its highest level. Also, the local Government has expanded the exclusion zone around the volcano. So far, around 1,00000 people have been evacuated from the danger zone. The current eruption reminds the Balinese people about the disaster that took place in 1963 from the same volcano. Then around 1,000 people had died, when gas, ash and rocks were ejected to a height of 2.5 kilometers above the mountain’s summit.
Indonesia is called the home to one of the biggest volcanic eruptions of the modern times. The two of the most significant such eruptions of the past were Tamobora in 1815 and Krakatoa in 1883. The Centre for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) at Bandung, formerly known as Volcanological Survey of Indonesia, says that previous eruptions which took place in the country in 1843 and 1710-11 were equally destructive.
Therefore, without taking any risk, the Indonesian Government has already warned residents to stay away from the rock and the debris, popularly called as “lahars”, flowing right from the mountain.
The CVGHM has categorised the volcanoes of the archipelago into three types — 69 of them are considered as active volcanoes and they all have erupted at least once since 1600. The second categories of volcanoes are those which are seemed to be active, but have not come out since 1600. The third types of volcanoes are those which are potentially active, located in the earth’s crust. With the existing active volcanoes in Indonesia, one can rightly say that it is in a high alert zone. Moreover, post-disaster management operations need to be strongly built in a country like Indonesia. Else, many more, mostly the poor and the vulnerable segment of the population in Bali, will suffer.
The first type of volcanoes is seriously monitored 24 hours a day by observers from nearby disaster stations managed by the Government. Once this is done, the team at the local office sends reports to the head office at Bandung for further observation and analysis by experts.
Today, the Indonesian Government is taking all precautionary measures by looking at the records of the 1963 eruption that happened in the same place. But then eruptions related to a volcano are hard to predict with extreme precision even by expert volcanologists, who study earthquakes which are accompanied by volcanoes. For example, the eruption in Sinabung in the island of Sumatra came one after another in 2010, 2013 and then 2016. Fortunately, the eruptions here had not taken place for more than 400 years. Therefore, all the disaster management agencies in Indonesia, including the CVGHM, did not monitor the situation in Sumatra for long. So the evacuation planning had to be prepared immediately, which led to widespread panic across the locality. Fearing recurrence of such type of imminent calamities, the establishment in Jakarta is fast coordinating with the provincial government in Bali so as to avoid major setbacks in future.
Now the question is that whether this tremor or eruption is close to a major disaster like the one that took place in 1963. The National Board for Disaster Management first warned people and raised the alert to level four because of the possibility and imminent risk of disaster in and around Mount Agung. The international media agencies report that the volcano was seen emitting continuous ash puffs, occasionally accompanied by explosive eruptions and weak booms which could be heard from a distance of 12-13 kilometres away from the mountain. This all indicate that the potential for a larger eruption is imminent. Some other international volcanologists like Mark Tingay say that Mount Agung now appears to be entering the next phase with a magmatic eruption, where the glow of lava is visible even at the crater. Indeed, many geologists are of the view that eruptions are difficult to predict. Hence no one knows how the situations would develop in the days to come.
However, there has been mixed feelings among the locals whom the Government had asked to vacate their homes. The moment the volcano began spewing thick gas last month, the Government warned people around a radius of 12 km to leave as early as possible, fearing a major tremor. But, many of them refused to leave their homes as they felt they would lose both their lives and dwelling place once they evacuate. Some say that this eruption may make their fields more fertile and hence unless something very dangerous looms large over their area, they are not ready to leave their homes.
There could be global ramifications of the volcanic eruptions in Bali. If the massive amount of sulfur dioxide blows from Bali, this may lead to the cooling of the planet for several years. Also this may bring freezing temperatures across America and higher gas prices in future. But research conducted in the past shows that the Northern Hemisphere winters tend to be warmer than normal, following big tropical eruptions of such types. And it is purely unpredictable whether a blast from Mount Agung could be able to change the weather conditions globally in coming days.
Some geologists say that an eruption of this kind may trigger a Pacific Ocean El Nino by cooling tropical Africa. If it happens, it may lead to milder weather conditions across America. And again if Mount Agung releases more sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, the global average temperature may decrease for many years. Whatsoever it may be, regional and seasonal climate in and around Indonesia could be more complex as a result of this volcanic activity.
The major challenge remains in rehabilitating the evacuees. Further, the island which solely depends on the tourism industry is seriously affected by the volcanic eruption. This is already creating a panic among the Balinese as they have to look for alternative sources of income in case the crisis continues. Bali receives nearly two million tourists each year and it offers about 58,000 jobs to the locals, which is 20 per cent of the islands population.
Finally, the Government fund allocated for mitigating such calamities is just 4 trillion rupiah i.e. $296 million. But with so many volcanoes active across the country, the international experts say that this fund is not sufficient to handle volcanic eruptions and the post-disaster management situations. Therefore, global non-government agencies, civil society organisations and most importantly the United Nations disaster management organisations should step in to help out the island nation. Hope before the next wave of smoke and tremor visit Bali, Indonesia is well-prepared.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)