There are lessons that New Delhi can learn from the US shutdown. One is that both the Government and the Opposition must work together when it concerns national interest. So far, our parliamentary system has served us well in such crises
While in India, all the political parties seem to be focussed on the lok Sabha election of 2014, in the US, now after the end of the two-week long Government shutdown, people are evaluating the performance and also discussing the future of both the Republican and the Democratic parties for the mid-term cycle of poll scheduled for 2014. In India, the Times Now, India TV and C-Voter survey, which was conducted between August and October, predicts that the Congress’s seats in the lok Sabha will fall from 206 in the 2009 election to 102 in the 2014 election, and that the BJP is expected to increase its seats to 162 seats from 116 in 2009. But the survey also says that no party would be able to secure a clear majority to stake its claim to form the Government. Therefore, the parties would have to rely on the support of the regional parties to form the Government, which in return would force them to get exploited and manipulated by these regional parties.
The BJP’s election propaganda is revolving around Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who is being projected as a saviour of the party. The Congress’s propaganda is centred on Mr Rahul Gandhi and the various public welfare schemes his party has launched.
As we have seen, Parliament is not allowed to function for days together due to the lack of coordination and cooperation among the main national parties. There are media debates and criticism for such impasse, but somehow the deadlock is always resolved in an all-party meeting. This is the beauty of the parliamentary system, which critics claim is a rather unstable system.
But, a look at what has happened in the US over the last couple of weeks shows that the Federal Government was forced to shut down for almost two weeks by the stubbornness of the Republican members of the House of Representatives. In India, such logjam is a rare phenomenon. Should such a thing take place, the Government and Parliament would be dissolved and elections announced. But, being a presidential system and following the checks and balance procedure, such deadlock is not unnatural for the US. However, the US seemed amply disturbed by it as the event has adversely affected the country’s international economic image and prestige. Nevertheless, the shutdown was also not liked and appreciated by a majority of the people, so much so that some eminent American scholars, in sheer hopelessness and frustration, described the present Congress as a greater danger to national security than the threat from Al Qaeda!
The public anger was reflected in a poll sponsored by NBC News and Wall Street Journal, conducted between October 8 and October 12, and reported by The New York Times — which showed how the shutdown took its toll by tarnishing the Republican Party’s image among the people. Seventy per cent of respondents shared the opinion that the Republicans in Congress had forwarded their own political agenda without thinking about the welfare and fate of the country. Actually most of the respondents thought that the Republicans compromised nation’s interest while pursuing their own interest. The shutdown has led 47 per cent of the people to have negative feelings about the Tea Party, with just 21 per cent of Americans having a positive opinion about this group.
The New York Times has also published the findings of the Pew Research Report survey about the possibility in 2014 election and the growing unpopularity of the Congress members after this shutdown. According to this survey, 74 per cent of registered voters said that most members of the Congress should not be re-elected in 2014. According to this report the Democrats have secured a six-point edge over the Republicans: 49 per cent of the registered voters said that they would vote for the Democratic candidates in their districts, while only 43 per cent showed a leaning toward the Republican candidates.
There is also a general feeling that the Republicans have failed to fulfil their commitments and promises which they have made to the American people. Therefore, after keeping the Government on its toes for nearly two weeks, the Republicans’ U-turn on the shutdown is being seen as their surrender in the fight against President Barack Obama on the issues of budget, healthcare and the nation’s credit.
The Americans also have a feeling that the Republicans actually neither gained anything substantial out of the shutdown nor did their prestige and popularity improve. The Republicans could not make any dent or cut on Mr Obama’s healthcare budget, but they could only create immense loss to the economy and American prestige worldwide. But as per the deal signed by the two parties, the budget ceiling would last till January 15, 2014 and it would re-open on February 7, 2014.
So, if the coordination and understanding between the two parties is lost, the same situation might surface once again the following year. The people also feel that, to create such a situation yet again — and that too so soon after the last one — would be sheer folly on the part of the political parties, as this crisis has not lead them anywhere. The US system of governance, while providing immense powers to the President and the Opposition party, has a great role to play in effective functioning. But the lack of coordination among the three branches of Government and political parties, can also clip Mr Obama’s powers and cripple the system.
In a way, the US example provides a lesson to India. At the same time, it gives us an opportunity to evaluate the performance of the political parties and the public and the media reaction to it.
(The writer is professor of Political Science, HNB Garhwal University, Uttarakhand)