Even as just two more phases of polling are left, neither Modi nor the BJP should take victory for granted or underestimate the opponents. RSS cadres may be openly canvassing support, but there’s no scope for complacency
A leading national television channel, known for its pro-left and anti-saffron leanings, recently telecast a poll related programme from Varanasi, which showed a red cap (Samajwadi Party) wearing member of the Nishad (boatmen) community who had no hesitation in stating that while he was a supporter of the Mulayam Singh Yadav- led regional party, he would be voting for Mr Narendra Modi in the lok Sabha poll as the country needs a strong Prime Minister who can deliver. He reflected the sentiment of a large section of the people across the country which the political pundits and analysts, who are used to calculating caste combinations and permutations and the regional dynamics and demographic issues as per the convention, are failing to read.
Congress spokespersons, once they are out of the television studios, concede off the record that there is a palpable undercurrent in favour of the Gujarat Chief Minister. By dismissing it as media hype, Mr Modi’s critics are misreading the situation. They are like the proverbial pigeon which refuses to recognise the cat before its very eyes.
A tour across Uttar Pradesh reveals that the idea of Modi has grown beyond the BJP. Even hardcore critics of the BJP want to give the man a chance.
Not just in the Hindi heartland but in the heart of the national capital in lutyens’s zone, notwithstanding the incumbent regime’s hefty pay hikes and setting up of new Pay Commissions, one hears officers and clerks alike talking of “Achche din aane wale hain” Good days are in the offing).
From a Hindutva poster-boy post-Godhra violence, Mr Modi has over the years transformed into a leader representing decisiveness, determination and development. The attempts to ‘expose’ or ridicule the Gujarat Model falls flat on the face when confronted with the fact that if the people in the State have not seen any changes at the ground level, why on earth would they have been voting a Government for third successive termIJ Are these critics questioning the wisdom of the people of GujaratIJ
As for the question of the 2002 riots repeatedly sought to be raised whenever Mr Modi talks about development, noted film script-writer Salim Khan in a recent television interview had asked thus: “Does anyone remember who the Chief Minister of Maharashtra was during the Mumbai riots which were no less deadly than the Gujarat riots of 2002IJ Does anyone recall the name of the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh during the Maliana or the Meerut riots or the name of the Bihar Chief Minister when the Bhagalpur or Jamshedpur riots under Congress regimes took placeIJ Do we hear the names of earlier Chief Ministers of Gujarat under whose charge hundreds of riots took place in post-Independence IndiaIJ Some of these riots were far more deadly than the 2002 outburst. The State used to explode into violence every second month. Does anyone remember who was in charge of Delhi’s security when the 1984 massacre of Sikhs took place in the capital of IndiaIJ”
Meanwhile, Muslims continue to be victims of Bodo attacks in Assam, but nobody seems to be questioning Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi’s inability to handle the situation. Or is it that only the lives of Gujarati Muslims matter as they provide fodder to attack Mr ModiIJ
True, factionalism, intra-party politics, wrong choice of candidates etc are factors that haunt the BJP as much as any other party. But to assert that the BJP will lose because of these factors would be wishful thinking. In the 1977 election, people had made up their mind to defeat the Congress decisively and the Janata Party candidates won across the country. A maverick like Raj Narain defeated the invincible Indira Gandhi. Similarly, a sympathy wave swept the country after Indira Gandhi’s assassination and the Congress under a political greenhorn in Rajiv Gandhi won a landslide. The history of elections in post-independent India has repeatedly shown that groupism, internal power struggles, sabotages and even candidates don’t matter when there is a desire for change among the people. A recent episode of a popular news spoof programme on an English channel showed real young voters, interviewed by the stand-up artist, expressing their support for Mr Modi, without even knowing his first name.
When intellectuals and opportunists alike, from MJ Akbar to Sabir Ali, NK Singh to Jagdambika Pal and Ram Vilas Paswan to Chandrababu Naidu, switched sides to Mr Modi, were they carried away just by the media hype or did they sense the mood at the grassroots levelIJ
If the Chief Minister of West Bengal or Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has had negligible presence, are today targeting Mr Modi, if arch rivals Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and lalu Yadav are hitting out at the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate with equal vehemence, then it’s no more about secularism but securing their own future.
The revelations about lalu Prasad’s revival, Ms Priyanka Vadra’s aggression and the future of the Third Front are creations of the minds of those who want to halt the Modi-juggernaut. If defence of the family’s honour, unsubstantiated charges against Mr Modi and ridicule of his remarks within the safe environs of Rae Bareli and Amethi are the only recipes that Ms Vadra has to offer, her projection as the new star on the Congress horizon does not inspire much confidence. Gone are the days when the Indian voter could be won over by mere glamour or family surname.
But even as only two more phases of the polls are left, neither Mr Modi nor the BJP should take victory for granted or underestimate the opponents. It is perhaps for the first time after the 1977 election that the RSS cadres have come out openly and in large numbers to canvass support for any political party, but that alone should not be reason for complacence among the party workers. Mr Modi too should not make promises that would be difficult to implement immediately. For instance, his promise to send packing the illegal Bangladeshi migrants after May 16. The Vajpayee Government could not deport a single Bangladeshi in six years.
Mr Modi has been able to reach out to the remotest corners of the country and has helped in shaping the BJP as an acceptable entity despite its predominantly north Indian image. If the party bags over 200 seats, it would be as secular and acceptable as any, and if it obtains fewer, it would face the prospect of being tagged communal yet again.
The Modi factor would be decisive in the outcome of the ongoing lok Sabha election. For the Nishads of Varanasi to the tycoons in Mumbai, Mr Modi represents change, hope and the promise of a new dawn. Only time and time alone will prove whether he will be able to live up to the promises he has made, the high expectations he has raised — and whether good days will indeed come.
(The author is a senior journalist based in Delhi)