While Narendra Modi is the best choice to lead the country, the appeal of the Aam Aadmi Party at least in Delhi cannot be ignored. The party is a new currency which stands out in the midst of old coins and, therefore, dazzles
The Aam Aadmi Party was counted off as nothing more than an apostate rebel group — as had been done many times before in the past — that could achieve nothing more than being a minor irritant to the national parties. This perception has undoubtedly been proved wrong in the recently held Delhi State election. But hold on! The AAP is still not there yet. True, it achieved in Delhi significantly, but there are many more factors. The national capital accounts for nothing more than seven lok Sabha seats and voting in Delhi doesn’t represent the prevalent national mood at all.
The fact that the average Delhiite is more politically conscious than voters in other cities (with the exception of Kolkata) and the vast hinterland and rural belt that characterise the real ‘Bharat’, tells us the future will be a tougher climb for the AAP. Each State has its own issues, its own unique problems that its people are concerned about; and these problems are not necessarily related to the issue of corruption — the most important stand of the AAP’s existence — more so given the fact that in India, the corruption plank has mostly not been associated with significantly influencing electoral performance.
Therefore, the preponderance of euphoria and excitement of the urban middle classes behind the success of the AAP is fantastic but it may not yet be enough. However, based on the perceived image of political parties, the AAP stands at the top of the list in terms of its veritably clean image and the role Anna Hazare played as a mentor of the party. The question remains, though: Is all this enough to win a national electionIJ Typically, the AAP has an emotional connect with the urban middle class; unfortunately, it is only these classes that our media represents. So the euphoria in the media and in the drawing rooms need not necessarily get reflected in a national election. Realistically speaking, the AAP still has to traverse some distance to be recognised as a vital force in the caustic Indian political landscape.
On the other hand, an intellectual mind has every reason to back Mr Arvind Kejriwal, indicating the country needs an outfit like the AAP. So, how can the void be filledIJ Instead of dreaming of a panacea, a prudent and realistic plan must be chalked out with a targeted timeline. The fact that the AAP has done well in Delhi has its advantages. Delhi represents, in some way, the culture of the Hindi heartland, the key regional segment for any party to win national elections. The fact that the overwhelming majority of Delhi’s population consists of immigrants from the Hindi heartland (and Punjab and Haryana) with many of their relatives residing in these States, is a factor that can be capitalised upon by the AAP. The winning of the AAP in Delhi is likely to be seen as an exemplar for the north Indian States to follow. However, all this is easier said than done, and the AAP would have to work hard and arrange necessary resources to secure its favourable perception in the coming days.
At the same time, there is an implicit danger in attempting that. The moment the AAP (or any party for that matter) tries to penetrate the rural heartland of India, it would invariably fall into the trap of being compelled to sit on top of corruption and ‘manage’ goons.
Sadly, that’s how Indian politics work. It cannot be said, though, that the vicious cycle can’t be defeated! It can be, provided one can think out of the box and remain stubbornly committed to one’s ideals. The question of whether the AAP has it is subject to the test of time. Its march in the Hindi heartland should be complemented with its spread in other metros and State capitals. However, the political and preferential dynamics in all metros are not same. For instance, while Delhi and Kolkata are overtly emotive (although in very different ways) about political outcomes and the ideologies that parties represent, Mumbai and Bangalore don’t seem to care less about such ideologies. This was evident by the mass support that Mr Hazare received in Delhi at the time of his fasting, compared to the subsequent lukewarm interest he generated in Mumbai, despite the fact that Maharashtra is his home State.
Therefore, it’s well and good for the AAP to be the last citadel against corruption, but defeating corruption can’t be its only agenda. The AAP must lay down a comprehensive economic and social plan for taking the country forward and creating jobs. And unfortunately, the fact is that we have not heard of anything ground-breaking yet on those fronts from the AAP, so much so that I will even say that the manifestos of both the Congress and the BJP in Delhi were far more comprehensive and impacting on the above mentioned grounds. Therefore, administering Delhi is an acid test for the AAP. It has to evoke confidence among the electorate that after coming to power, it would not be simply like other parties.
If the AAP can turn Delhi into a novel State and deliver what it promises, it is possible that India will enter a new phase in its democracy and discard the baggage of a pattern characterised by disillusioned electorates and their frustrations towards political outfits. Yes, there is every chance that the BJP will come to power in the 2014 general election. In these upcoming national election, without getting confused, people would go all out and vote for Mr Narendra Modi, for that man has a proven track record of magical achievements in Gujarat. And he most surely deserves a chance now, specially given the fact that after the horrendous record of the last Government, we need stability in mature hands and not any confusion. Yet, there is more excited in the anticipation of what will happen if the AAP comes to power at the Centre thereafter.
The BJP at most represents one side of the same coin that has the Congress on the other side. The AAP is the new currency that the optimists, like me, are banking upon.
(The writer is a management guru and honorary director of IIPM Think Tank)