The biggest event of the year will the general election in May. Whichever party or alliance is elected, it will have a lot of problems to fix
What does the crystal ball say about the year 2014IJ It looks to be unpredictable and one of political shocks and economic shifts. Broadly speaking, the past few months have seen many political and macro economic developments, which will be unveiled further in the current year.
The biggest event of the year is the general election in May. Whichever party or combination is elected, it has to fix a lot of issues that India is currently facing. The year 2014 is also crucial to the future of many leaders. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may bow out after his two successive terms but what about the other senior leadersIJ Mr Sharad Pawar of NCP is talking of not contesting while Mr lK Advani wants to continue. The DMK’s M Karunanidhi too may have his final innings. Will Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav be relevantIJ The poll will also decide the fortunes of several leaders like lalu Yadav, Mehbooba Mufti, Jagan Reddy, Chandrababu Naidu, and Uddhav Thackeray.
It will be an anti-climax if the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is unable to deliver. But if he wins, he will be the man of the year 2014. Mr Modi began his campaign much ahead of others with his massive rallies and impressive oratory. The game was heading Mr Modi’s way till recently, but the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi has toppled the apple cart. The success of the AAP should be an eye-opener for not only the Congress but also other political parties.
As for Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, the year 2014 will be a test of his vote catching capacity and his ability to continue the dynastic rule. The Congress may face the problem of the anti-incumbency, as the people are vexed with corruption and scams. Although Mr Gandhi has a clean slate, his baggage of the UPA Government will be huge burden on him.
The New Year can also be described as the beginning of a new kind of politics after the installation of the Kejriwal Government promising a corruption-free State. The AAP is already inside the corridors of power in Delhi and that itself is the biggest achievement. The AAP is now a serious contender for saffron party’s votes not only in Delhi but also in other metros. There are more than 200 urban seats where the AAP could cut into the BJP votes.
As for the Assembly polls, the Congress is presently ruling in Haryana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh. The anti incumbency is starting in its face where people are looking for an alternative. The Congress has made a mess in handling of the Andhra Pradesh by promising to bifurcate it. If a separate Telangana State is not created, the Congress will lose in both Andhra Pradesh and Telengana.
The Indian economy has been affected by global factors as well as political inaction. It has been on the downslide in 2013. Goldman Sachs, in its November 28, 2013, report has predicted that 2014 will be an year of transition. It all depends mainly on the formation of a stable Government. A hung Parliament is the single biggest risk for the stock markets. Analysts also expect the banking and financial sectors might do well alongside telecom sector. The healthcare and pharmaceutical sector may not perform well while Information Technology could be looking up.
After a decade of stable foreign policy, the year 2014 brings uncertainty. The two pillars of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s foreign policy are to see a marked improvement in India-US ties and take trust building efforts with Pakistan.
The year begins with the improved India-Japan ties. After Japan’s Emperor Akihito’s visit, now its Prime Minister will be the chief guest in the Republic Day parade this year. Ties with Sri lanka will be put under test once again in March when the UN Human Rights council meets. New Delhi also has to decide its policy on Afghanistan after the US pulls out. Our relations with China ended in 2013 with a more positive than negative tone. China’s new leadership exhibited positive vibes towards the Indian counterpart, which was missing since 1950.
Altogether, the future course depends entirely on the new Government — be it domestic, economic or foreign policy.