The upcoming Rajya Sabha election is going to be a crucial test of the future of the Samajwadi Party-led alliance having 125 members in the UP Assembly. The SP has the lion’s share of 111 MLAs while the rest are of its two allies Rashtriya Lok Dal (8) and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (6).
The election to the 11 seats of Rajya Sabha from UP is due next month. On its strength, the ruling BJP can win eight seats. If the SP alliance remains intact and united, it can win the rest of the three seats with 23 spare votes.
Though the SP has strong temptation to field a fourth candidate as it has 23 spare votes, it is most likely to exercise this option to avoid a contest. If only 11 candidates file nomination papers, there will be no election and all 11 candidates will be declared elected unopposed.
If the SP contests the extra (fourth) seat, the move will not only necessitate voting, but will also bring in the risk of cross-voting which could hurt its prospects due to the purported unhappiness of Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia (PSP-L) chief Shivpal Yadav and SP leader Azam Khan.
The Rajya Sabha members are elected by MLAs in accordance with the system of proportional representation by means of a single transferable vote. For one seat, 34 votes will be required. The BJP and allies have 273 votes while the SP and allies have 125.
After the claim on eight seats, the BJP will be left with only one spare vote while the SP will have 23 spare votes.
SP sources said that the matter is under consideration and the party has not decided on fielding an extra candidate.
“If the Samajwadi Party decides to field the fourth candidate, the BJP will also field the ninth candidate, and then the Shivpal and Azam camps may come into play,” the sources said.
Samajwadi Party spokesman Rajendra Chaudhary said: “Shivpal Yadav, Azam Khan and all the members of the SP and its allies will vote for the SP candidates.”
PSP-L spokesperson Deepak Mishra said Shivpal Yadav has not made up his mind as yet.
Besides, the Samajwadi Party also cannot be confident of five floating votes — two of Raghuraj Pratap Singh’s Jansatta Dal (Loktantrik), two of the Congress, and one of the BSP.
SP alliance partner Om Prakash Rajbhar, the chief of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), is also lobbying for the RS nomination from SP for his son Arvind Rajbhar, who had contested the recently-held UP Assembly elections from Shivpur but lost. The RLD had contested 38 seats in the SP alliance and won only eight while the SBSP contested only 16 and won six.