Meerut stands out from the remaining Assembly seats in the western belt of Uttar Pradesh mainly due to fragmentation of votes surprisingly not of minority votes but multiplicity of the majority candidates.
Believe it or not Hindu candidates outnumber the Muslims. Perhaps this happens to be the wake up call for the BJP which has all along been conquering this citadel.
The shadow of anti-incumbency factor coupled with demonetisation is looming large. Out of the total seven Assembly seats, four were bagged by the BJP in previous elections. However, the coming polls are not going to be a cakewalk since the majority of the business community has still not forgotten the travails of the note ban, according to political observers.
Taking for instance Meerut city, the BJP has reposed its faith in former State party chief lakshmi Kant Bajpai, who has won from this seat four times out of total seven times he had contested, but this time he is facing tough fight from the BSP that has fielded a young and popular candidate Pankaj Jolly while the RlD’s Gyanendra Sharma is also in the electoral arena.
The ruling Samajwadi Party has fielded Rafiq Ansari — the only Muslim candidate in the fray from prominent political parties. The Hindu-Muslim ratio on this seat is of 52 and 48 and with no prominent candidate from the minority community except that of the ruling party there is rare possibility of fragmentation of votes, much to electoral discomforts of veteran Bajpai, said some residents.
In Sardhana where the firebrand BJP leader and the party’s west UP poster boy Sangeet Som is seeking a re-election, the party is hopeful of regaining the seat but for the challenge from the BSP which has fielded Imran, son of controversial man Haji Yaqub and Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s protégé Atul Pradhan.
Haji Yaqub stood second on this seat while fighting on a RlD ticket in 2012 elections and he got over 50,000 votes from here.
The BSP chief Mayawati these days is advising Muslims to vote intelligently this time around. “Split among your votes will indirectly help the BJP,” she cautions almost everywhere she has gone during campaigning.
Things are no better for another BJP veteran in local politics, Satya Narain Agarwal, who is seeking fourth successive term this time from Meerut Cantonment.
The constituency is dominated by members of the trading community while Punjabis also have a sizeable representation here.
Following the SP-Congress alliance, the seat has gone to the oldest national party on which Ramesh Dhingra, a hotelier is contesting. The BSP has fielded a Jat candidate Satyendra Solanki.
In Meerut south seat, the BJP has cancelled the ticket of the sitting MlA, Ravindra Bhadana and fielded a youngster Somendra Tomar while Haji Yaqub is there to attract minority community members on a BSP ticket.
Here too chances of a fragmentation of minority votes are distant. With barely two days left for the D-day, the saffron party is keeping its fingers crossed hoping against hope that Modi’s magic is its only saviour here.