The Congress has been expecting Kerala to supply it with the second largest number of seats after Karnataka in the 16th lok Sabha election but analyses of polling held in the State’s 20 seats on April 10 show that the party may have to face a very disappointing reality at completion of the counting of votes on May 16.
Congress core committee member and Defence Minister AK Antony and State party president VM Sudheeran had on the polling day said that the party-led UDF would sweep the polls in Kerala. However, poll analysts think that the CPI(M)-led lDF may bag 12 or 13 of the total 20 seats in the State and the Congress tally could be reduced to just four or five.
The assumption is based on the analysis of how enthusiastically Keralites had turned up at polling booths in areas known for leftist leaning and the reluctance of voters to cast votes in regions with concentration of UDF supporters. On April 10, Kerala had seen the fourth biggest voter turnout - 74.04 per cent — in Parliament elections since 1977.
It has also been proved now that the fear over the possibility of Narendra Modi becoming the country’s Prime Minister, something the Congress had been banking on for easy victory in constituencies with heavy Muslim concentration, was simply absent as there has been no huge turnout in the booths of such areas.
“Till a fortnight ago, even independent poll analysts were saying that the Congress might win 12 or 13 seats. Even opinion polls of that time had made such predictions. But the scenario changed altogether after that, reversing the poll prospects. It is now the left which seems to be winning 12 or 13 seats,” says Mohankumar, a Kozhikode-based analyst.
One of the major reasons the Congress had been citing for the UDF’s prospects was the inappropriateness of the Independent candidates the left had fielded in key constituencies of Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Ernakulam, Chalakkudy and Ponnani but even Congress leaders are now admitting that they could have been wrong in their assessment.
“Perhaps we had committed the mistake of over-estimating the caliber of our candidates when the left had taken its steps practically. I must admit that our selection of candidates in seats like Pathanamthitta and Idukki had been unintelligent. It seems that we failed to see the writing on the wall, as the saying goes,” said a PCC office-bearer from central Kerala.
He said that it was a mistake to make Antony the chief campaigner for the party and the front in Kerala. “Antony’s appearance on campaign stages and TV screens could have reminded the voters of the many corruption scams the UPA had been charged with. Also, he was no match for (VS) Achuthanandan, the left’s star campaigner,’ he added.
According to poll analysts, the pattern of voting shows that even Union Ministers Shashi Tharoor, KV Thomas and Mullappally Ramachandran may not make it to the lok Sabha respectively from Thiruvananthapuram, Ernakulam and Vadakara where they had emerged winners by impressive margins in the 2009 election.
Tharoor himself had towards the close of campaigning admitted that he may lose the election in Thiruvananthapuram which he had won in 2009 by a margin of 99,998 votes. Fearing defeat, he had called a special meeting of Pentecostal Church pastors to request their support. He had then told them that his margin would not be more than 20,000 votes even if he won at all.
UDF Government’s Chief Whip PC George, vice-chairman of front constituent Kerala Congress (M), said the other day Congress candidates Tharoor and Anto Antony were unlikely to win from Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta respectively. He also indicated that Congress candidate Dean Kuriakose may not make it to Parliament from the Idukki seat.
Other seats which were earlier thought to be UDF strongholds and are now expected to give it a shock are Idukki, Thrissur, Kozhikode and Alappuzha (from where Union Minister KC Venugopal contested). Even if the UDF manages to win seven seats, the Congress will have just four seats as two seats from the tally will go to the Muslim league and one to the KC(M).