The outcome of the Jokihat Assembly bypoll was on expected lines: A crushing defeat of JD(U). The ruling party, which had been winning this seat for 13 years, lost it to the RJD whose Shahnawaz Alam defeated JD(U)’s Murshid Alam by a margin of 41,124 votes. The top leaders of JD(U) including party chief and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had campaigned and senior leaders of his party including Ministers had camped in the Muslim dominated constituency in bid to retain it. The RJD’s only leader who campaigned there was Tejashwi Prasad Yadav.
The RJD was confident of victory while JD(U) leaders including Nitish were speculating a defeat for many reasons. The result also indicated that RJD stalwart and former Union Minister Mohammad Taslimuddin, who died in September, was still the influencing factor in Seemanchal region of Bihar bordering West Bengal, Nepal and Bangladesh. Shahnawaz is younger son of Taslimuddin while earlier this seat was represented twice by his eldest son Sarfaraz Alam who was in JD(U).
The defeat has come as a big blow to the JD(U) and dented the image of its supreme leader. Only two months back Sarfaraz, who represented Jokihat as JD(U) MlA resigned from the party and the seat and contested Araria lok Sabha seat, falling vacant due to death of his father, on RJD ticket and won it defeating BJP.
The lS result in March had clearly indicated what was in store for Jokihat, one of the Assembly segments of Araria, in the bypoll. Sarfaraz was credited with making a lead of 80,000 votes in this segment. Even in lS bypoll too RJD leadership had no much role to play as the election was held in the name of Taslimuddin who won Araria several times.
The JD(U) leaders too had read the writings on the wall that the ‘Tilism’ (magic) of Taslim was supreme in the region he had ruled for almost half a century.
Demanding resignation of Nitish, leader of opposition Tejashwi said Nitish shook hands with the forces, which had been rejected by the people, and brought them to rule. Nitish, he said, was losing repeatedly still he was not listening to his inner voice. “This is just a trailer, picture abhi baki hai,” he said and added, “It also proved that JD(U) got 71 seats in 2015 election because of RJD and face of its leader lalu Prasad.”
In 2005 in both Assembly polls held in January and November JD(U)’s Manzar Alam won Jokihat seat but in 2010 he was denied ticket when Sarfaraz quit RJD and joined JD(U). He won in 2010 and again in 2015. This time the party ignored the claim of Manzar and instead preferred Murshid who is facing many criminal cases like murder, rape and theft of idols.
Murshid might be blamed for unseating the JD(U) but the message from this result is clear and far reaching. This has become crystal clear that Muslims are very angry with Nitish for breaking alliance with lalu, who is still seen by the community as messiah, and rejoining hands with the BJP. There had been time during 2013-16 that Muslims started seeing Nitish as the man who could confront Narendra Modi and they started rallying behind him but their trust was shattered when in July last he parted ways with the Mahagathbandhan and went back to the BJP. Even if Jokihat could be seen as an exception, where Muslims constitute 70 per cent votes, the voting pattern is expected to be the same across Bihar in next elections.