A Times Now-C Voter survey has predicted huge loss for the Congress-led UPA, marginal increase in the tally of BJP and major gains for regional outfits. The survey claimed Congress’ individual strength would come down from 206 to 119 seats, if elections were held now. Similarly, BJP’s strength would go up from 116 to 131 seats.
In all, the ruling UPA’s strength would come down from 228 to 136 and that of the NDA increase from 152 to 156 (without the JD-U). The survey gave 129 seats to other parties compared to their combined strength of 116 in the last elections.
In the vote share stakes, NDA may get 31 per cent, a hike of 6 per cent and the UPA may get 28 per cent (a fall of 9 pc), while the Third Front may get 22 per cent and Fourth Front 19 per cent of the vote share. The opinion poll was conducted on the basis of a national representative sample of 13,052 randomly selected respondents across all States during the period July 18 to July 24.
Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi leads with 37.7 per cent when respondents were asked who is suited to be the PM of India. Rahul Gandhi followed with 17.6 pc, Manmohan Singh 6.2 pc, Sonia Gandhi 3.9 pc and Sushma Swaraj 3.2 pc.
The survey predicted huge gains for YSR Congress (from zero to 14 seats) in Andhra Pradesh and AIADMK (from 9 to 27) in Tamil Nadu. It predicted that ruling Mamata Banerjee would improve her tally in West Bengal from 19 to 22 seats while Samajwadi Party’s strength in Uttar Pradesh increases from 22 to 33 seats. BSP was also set to increase its tally from 21 to 28 seats. The BJP was expected to win 12 seats in UP.
The survey also predicts a comeback of TDP in Andhra Pradesh wherein it will increase its seats from 2 to 11.
The survey has indicted that JD(U) is taking a toll on account of its split from the BJP. Its strength could come down to 11 from existing 20 seats. lalu Prasad’s RJD could make a comeback in Bihar by increasing its seats from 4 to 12, predicted the survey.
The left also increases its strength from 24 to 33 seats.
last week, the CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker poll conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said that though both the major electoral formations will get 29 per cent of the vote share each-the NDA will be ahead with anything between 172 and 180 seats and the UPA behind with 149 to 153 — in short, a gap of 22.
The BJP’s score, up from 2009, would be in the range 156 to 164; the Congress’s tally, 131 to 139, down from the last general elections.
On the leadership question, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, not surprisingly, is the most popular choice for Prime Minister. But it is the current incumbent, Manmohan Singh, who emerges as the “most liked” leader in the country.
The respondents said that when they will cast their votes, considerations about the party and the local candidate will weigh more than the leader.