Uncertainty over firming up of electoral tie-ups among two major political formations — the ruling Congress-NCP alliance and the Shiv Sena-BJP combine-led six-party “Maha-Yuti” (grand alliance) – continued on Friday, even as the Election Commission announced the election schedule for the Maharashtra Assembly polls.
Though it is pretty certain that both the major political formations will contest the October 15, 2014 State Assembly polls against each other as combined fronts, one should not be surprised that the seat-sharing negotiations among the constituents of the ruling and Opposition coalitions will drag till or may go a few days beyond the scheduled start of nominations for the polls on September 20.
For all practical purposes, the nominations for the polls will begin after the end of “Pitru Paksha” (16-day lunar period when Hindus pay homage to their ancestors) on September 23. Given that nominations will end on September 27, the contestants will barely have a fortnight on hand for electioneering before the campaign deadline ends on October 13.
Informed sources in both the ruling and Opposition coalitions said that the leaders of the Congress-NCP alliance and Sena-BJP combine-led “Maha-Yuti” had begun to speed up the process of seat-sharing negotiations.
Talking to media persons after the declaration of the schedule for the Assembly polls, Maharashtra chief minister Prithiviraj Chavan expressed confidence that the Congress and NCP would formalise the seat-sharing arrangement within next few days.
“We have set parameters for the seat-sharing negotiations. In the past, we have held similar negotiations on five occasions. Talks are going on at an informal level now. Once we decide on the number of seats to be contested by either of the parties, then we will deliberate on which of the seats we intend to swap between us. That will happen at the final stage. We intend to complete the negotiation within next few days,” Chavan said.
Confidence of wrapping up the seat-sharing negotiations expressed by the chief minister notwithstanding, the NCP -- which is a junior partner in the ruling Democratic Front – will definitely prolong the negotiation process by demanding a bigger share of seats than it had contested in the 2009 Assembly polls.
While the Congress had contested 170 seats add won 82 seats in the 2009 polls, the NCP had contested 113 seats and bagged 62 seats. However, after having performed better than its senior partner in the recent lok Sabha polls which saw the Sharad Pawar-led win four seats against two seats won by the Congress, the NCP has demanded an equal share ( 144 seats) in the total 288 Assembly seats. The Congress has been playing hard ball and may at best concede 10 additional seats than 113 seats it had contested in the 2009 polls.
Similarly the situation is no different on the Sena-BJP combine-led “Maha-Yuti” front. Fresh from its exccellent performance in the lok Sabha polls which saw it win 23 of the 26 seats it contested in Maharashtra (while Shiv Sena won 18 out of 22 seats contested), the BJP has been pushing its ally to it give more number of seats than the long-standing Pramod Mahajan seat-sharing formula of 117 (BJP): 171 (Sena)
In the beginning, the state BJP leaders were insisting that Sena share the total number of seats equally – 144: 144 -- with it. It has now scaled down its demand to 135seats as against the earlier claim for 144 seats. On its part, the Shiv Sena is no mood to toe the BJP line. It has amply clear to the BJP that it would not spare more number of seats than what is due to it (117) under the time-tested Mahajan formula.
The only agreement that the Shiv Sena and BJP have reached between them is to spare equal number of seats(either eight or nine seats each from their respective quotas) to four smaller other constituents in the “maha-yuti” --RPI (A), Raju Shetty-led Swabhimani Paksha, the Mahadeo Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and Vinayajk Mete-led Shiv Sangram.
“Now that the election schedule has been announced, the BJP would not be pushing us as much as it did in recent months. We are confident of bringing the BJP leaders around by offering them half a dozen to ten seats more than the seats they had contested in the past. Plus, we will allot equal number seats to other alliance partners in the Maha-Yuti from our respective quotas,” a senior Sena leader said.
It is not certain yet as to how many seats that the Raj Thackeray-led MNS, which will be going to the polls on its own strength, will contest. In the 2009 Assembly polls, the Raj Thackeray-led MNS had contested as many as 142 out of 288 seats in the state and won 13 seats. The then fledgling party had polled as many 5.71 per cent (25,85,597 votes) of the total votes polled. In the seats it had contested, the MNS had polled 11.88 per cent votes.
In the lok Sabha polls held earlier in 2009, though the MNS did not win any of the 11 seats it had contested in the 2009 lS polls, its candidates had polled more than one lakh votes in as many as nine constituencies – a development that had contributed in a big way to the Sena-BJP alliance’s debacle in the state.
However, in the 2014 lok Sabha polls, the MNS put up a miserable performance, Not only did all its 10 candidates lose their deposits, the MNS vote share was reduced from 4.6 per cent in the 2009 lok Sabha polls to just 1.5 per cent, even lower than Aam Aadmi Party’s 2.2 per cent, Bahujan Samaj Party’s 2.6 per cent, and much smaller Swabhimani Paksha’s 2.3 per cent.
Given that there will be also many other parties like BSP, Samajwadi Party. PWP and left parties in fray, there will be triangular and quadrangular contests in most of the 288 constituencies in the state.