Monsoon in large parts of northwest India would actually be delayed, quite contrary to the forecasts about its onset a fortnight earlier than its scheduled date or slightly before time. With the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday saying that further progress of the monsoon into Delhi and parts of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab is “unlikely” during the next seven days, it is clear that even the usual onset date of June 27 would not be met in the region.
This also means there would not be any relief from the scorching heat and humidity anytime soon.
India has received 37 per cent excess rainfall during the monsoon season so far. As per the IMD data, northwest India has received 71.3 mm rainfall against the normal of 40.6 mm rainfall during the period, a surplus of 76 per cent. Central India has registered 145.8 mm rainfall against the normal of 92.2 mm, an increase of 58 per cent. The southern peninsula has received 133.6 mm rainfall, which is 24 per cent more than normal, while east and northeast India witnessed 253.9 mm rainfall against the normal of 224.8 mm during the period.
On the advancement of monsoon, the IMD said that further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi and Punjab is likely to be slow as large scale features are not favourable.
“The forecast wind pattern by the numerical models do not indicate any
favourable condition for sustained rainfall over the region during the forecast period,” it said.
“Southwest monsoon has so far covered most parts of the country except parts of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana and Punjab,” it said.
“The salient feature of the monsoon in 2021 is its progress to eastern, central and adjoining northwest India earlier than normal (up to 7-10 days). However, further progress over the remaining parts of the country is unlikely during the next seven days,” it said.
Kuldeep Srivastava, the head of the IMD’s regional forecasting centre, said light rains are likely in Delhi-NCR around June 26 but
the region will have to wait for monsoonal showers.
The MeT office had earlier predicted that the wind system may reach Delhi by June 15, which would have been 12 days early. Normally, the monsoon reaches Delhi by June 27 and covers the entire country by July 8.
Last year, the wind system had reached Delhi on June 25 and covered the entire country by June 29, according to Skymet Weather, a private forecasting agency.
Mahesh Palawat from Skymet Weather said chances are that Delhi will get monsoonal showers only around June end.
“Westerly winds have been blocking the advance of the monsoon into the remaining parts of northwest India for some days. These are expected to persist for at least one week,” he said.