Maharajganj lok Sabha by-election has virtually become a battle of nerves for both Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and RJD chief lalu Prasad as none of them wants to leave anything to chance, particularly when the result of the bypoll is likely to cast a shadow over the 2014 general elections, barely a year away.
lalu, camping in the constituency since May 25, has completely engrossed himself in an aggressive campaigning, which includes an average three-four public meetings daily and also road shows.
Nitish, however, could not devote his time to the earlier phase of campaigning but he has also started addressing several election meetings on a single day from Wednesday to seek votes for his ministerial colleague PK Shahi, a prominent Bhumihar caste candidate. Nitish will camp in the constituency till May 31, the last date of the campaigning before the constituency goes to the bypoll on June 2.
In his address to the electorate at Ishuapur in Siwan district on the first day of his campaigning, Nitish said that the people should cast their votes in favour of the JD(U) candidate by considering it as a reward for the good work being done by his Government.
He also took a dig at lalu by saying that some people are not happy with the positive changes being made in the State and cautioned them against disrupting the momentum of growth by giving a chance to the RJD chief.
Shahi is pitted against two Rajput candidates, Prabhunath Singh and Jitendra Swami, in the by-election. Jitendra Swami is the son of RJD MP late Umashankar Singh and enjoys the potential of spoiling chances of the RJD candidate significantly if he manages to get substantial number of Rajput votes. The bypoll was necessitated following the death of Umashankar Singh.
Before starting his campaign trail on Tuesday, lalu told The Pioneer at Masrakh in Chhapra that the NDA regime stands fully exposed as the people now understand the reality and even repent why did they give fresh mandate to the Nitish Kumar Government in the 2010 State Assembly election.
“I might have erred on some occasions but the people ousted me out of power primarily because I was not very articulate while expressing myself at the public platforms,” he added.
Re-invoking his “anti-Mandal” media theory, lalu said that the media is not able to digest his party’s growing popularity in Maharajganj and trying to create an impression that the RJD candidate is not in a strong position. “The electronic media has launched a psychological warfare against my party by making misleading predictions about the bypoll result,” he quipped.
lalu also argued that Nitish’s credibility has become questionable in both BJP and RSS camps due to his strong opposition to Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as PM candidate for the 2014 lok Sabha elections.
Predictably, a large number of contractual teachers who hold a strong grudge against the Nitish Kumar Government over the issue of regularisation of their services were also present at the residence of Prabhunath Singh at Masrakh where lalu was staying.
To a query whether he feels hurt as the Congress has fielded its own candidate, the RJD chief evaded a direct reply but stated that the presence of the Congress in the fray will not have any impact on the outcome of the bypoll as the electorate have already decided to elect Prabhunath Singh.
later addressing an election meeting at Madarpur in Siwan on Tuesday, lalu also tried to play his secular card by calling Narendra Modi as an “agent of America” and contending that the people of Bihar will never give an opportunity to lK Advani or Modi to rule the country.
Prabhunath Singh, a three-term JD(U) MP and now contesting on the RJD ticket has another challenge to the path of victory as the Congress itself is quite eager to see his defeat in the by-election, explains a local Congress leader on the condition of anonymity.
The Congress’s hatred against Singh is quite understandable too as he had allegedly used foul language against Congress president Sonia Gandhi when he was JD(U) MP from 2004 to 2009. The Congress has deputed several Central Ministers, senior leaders and star campaigners to consolidate Rajput votes against the RJD nominee.
Prabhunath Singh is trying to improve his electoral chances by arguing that all candidates except him are outsiders and contends that other candidates can move around to seek votes but people will ultimately cast their votes in favour of their “very own” person.
For lalu who represents Saran lok Sabha constituency, he can ill-afford to lose the Maharajganj seat as the defeat will be construed as a major setback to his popularity in the Saran-Siwan region of north Bihar.
Though lalu continues to repeat himself at the public meetings, exuding confidence of the party candidate’s victory, his elections speeches betray his worries over the outcome of the election as he openly exhorts members of Brahmarshi Samaj (Bhumihars) to vote for the RJD candidate.
lalu is primarily banking on the support of Rajputs in the election and his efforts might work also to some extent going by the fact that Prabhunath Singh holds a good command among his caste members.
The RJD candidate’s chances of victory also depend on the chemistry between Rajput and Yadav voters on the polling day and whether members of an upper caste and those of a backward caste bury their socio-political differences and combine together to challenge Nitish Kumar who is being targeted for his very pro-Mahadalits, Dalits and EBCs approach.
If the JD(U) wrests Maharajganj seat from the RJD, it will be a big gain for Nitish who wants to play a very significant role both pre- and post-2014 lok Sabha elections as the victory will set the tone for an upsurge JD(U) to improve its tally in the big election which is now less than one year away.
The victory will also once again re-establish the fact that “Sushashan Babu” continues to command huge popularity among people despite certain criticism about his style of governance from certain quarters.
Maharajganj lok Sabha constituency comprises four Assembly seats of Saran district — Ekma, Baniapur, Tariyan and Manjhi, and two of Siwan district — Goriakothi and Maharajganj.
The bypoll has also brought both JD(U) and BJP leaders closer after exchange of barbs on the issue of projection of Narendra Modi as the PM nominee for the 2014 lS elections as leaders of both parties are aggressively campaigning in the constituency, seeking votes for PK Shahi.