The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday predicted a slightly delayed southwest monsoon saying that it is likely to set over Kerala on June 5 as against the normal date of June 1. last year, the monsoons had arrived on June 1 as against the predicted date of June 3.
The second half of the monsoon season around September could be marred by emergence of the El Nino, which will have a bearing on the general monsoon circulation in the country.
Private forecasting company Skymet Weather Services, however, expects monsoon to arrive in Kerala slightly earlier. According to Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet, monsoon rains will arrive by May 28 in Kerala, between June 7 and June 8 in Maharashtra and hit New Delhi around June 22-24. But, monsoon rains are likely to be delayed in Eastern part of the country but is likely to gather momentum after it crosses Bihar, said Singh.
The weather experts in IMD said, that the prediction of the onset of monsoon is done on the basis of indigenously developed model which include six scientific predictors. These include minimum temperature over North-West India, pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula, outgoing long wave radiation over south China Sea and South-West Pacific region, lower troposphere zonal wind over South-East Indian Ocean, upper troposphere zonal wind over the East equatorial Indian Ocean.
The model is being used since the past nine years beginning from 2005 jointly by Earth System Sciences Organisation (ESSO) under Ministry of Earth Sciences and India Meteorological Department.The met scientists from IMD stressed that presuming the second half of the monsoon season could be marred by emergence of the El Nino around September. They have hence advised the farmers to take advantage of the pre monsoon rains and start sowing the crops accordingly.
Early sowing of crops by May-June, would thus ensure that the plants would thus escape the dry spell that may likely occur in the later months. In this situation, they would be at the maturity stage by the time El Nino made any impact, suggested the weather experts.