The withdrawal of the monsoon normally starts by September 1, but this time there are no signs of a retreat so far. According to the Indian Meteorology Department, the overall monsoon deficit in the country has narrowed to 15%. And, according to the department’s forecast, until September 10 rainfall will continue to occur at many places along the west coast and north-west India.
With rains reviving in the past week, including over the Northwest after a three-week lull, the average rainfall this week has shot up to 24 percent above normal, as against recorded in the previous week, at 22 percent below normal. The weather experts predicted that the rainy spell is likely to continue. According to the weather experts, the monsoon retreat symptoms are still not perceptible.
Prevalence of dry weather for five continuous days and reduction in moisture content will be considered before announcing the withdrawal of monsoon. Further a yet another indication of the retreat of monsoon is the setting of anti-cyclonic circulation over western Rajasthan in the low levels of atmosphere. So far, the rainfall deficit has ranged between 5% and 13% in the southern, eastern and central parts of the country, while in the north and northwest the shortfall was 33%. In Punjab and Haryana, the seasonal deficit was at 64%, followed by 58% in west Uttar Pradesh.
The complete withdrawal of the monsoon from the country is expected to take place after October 1. The southwest monsoon arrived late this year on June 6 and covered the country by July 17. However, regardless of the spurt in monsoon at its fag end, meteorologists have said the monsoon is likely to end with deficit rainfall as in the past several years.