Union Earth Sciences Minister S Jaipal Reddy on Friday said that monsoon is likely to be normal this year and a drought is unlikely.
Releasing the India Meteorological Department’s report, he said the monsoon this year is likely to be 98 per cent of the long-term average. “I have very good news for farmers as well as others, the monsoon is likely to be normal this year,” the Minister said, adding that by and large, the drought-hit areas of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka are likely to get normal rain.”
Monsoon rains are vital for the 55 per cent of the country’s farmland that lacks irrigation facilities, and can make the difference between India being an exporter or importer of staples such as rice and sugar.
Rainfall is expected to be 98 per cent of the long-term average during the June to September season, Reddy said. Rains between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire season are considered normal, or average.
The last time there was a drought with rainfall below this range was in 2009 and prior to that, in 2004.
Southern States, already parched by their worst drought in four decades, should see some relief, but their exact situation will be clear in June, India’s weather office head lS Rathore added, easing fears their rice and sugar cane harvests could be hurt again.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) will forecast the probable arrival date for the monsoon on May 15, Rathore added. Its next forecast for monsoon rainfall will be in June.
Agriculture accounts for 15 per cent of gross domestic product in Asia’s third-largest economy, where more than 800 million people live in rural areas. Ample harvests also help keep a lid on inflation, now running near 9 per cent.
Rain last year fell only about 7 per cent below average in the season, but drought ravaged an area in India’s southern and western States that is roughly the size of southern Europe, and which is still suffering.