As Marathwada prepares to go to the October 15 Maharashtra Assembly polls, one cannot ignore a significant fact that this is the first Assembly election being held in the absence of two very senior political leaders from the region — Vilasrao Deshmukh of the Congress and Gopinath Munde of the BJP — after a gap of nearly three and a half decades.
Their absence is noticed by voters in 46 Assembly segments spread across eight lok Sabha constituencies, as the major political parties slug it out to bag as many seats as they can in this traditionally saffron alliance bastion, in an atmosphere of political uncertainty.
If the 2009 State Assembly poll outcome is any barometer, then the Congress and NCP – which won as many as 18 and 12 seats respectively as against seven and two seats won respectively by the Shiv Sena and BJP—have an edge over their the two saffron alliance parties on paper. If the results of the 2014 lok Sabha polls are anything to go by, then the BJP sits pretty, having won three out of eight lok Sabha seats and established leads in as many as 20 out of the 46 Assembly segments, followed by Shiv Sena (three lok Sabha seats, leads in 17 Assembly segments), Congress (two lok Sabha seats and leads in eight Assembly segments) and NCP (no lok Sabha seat and lead in only one Assembly segment).
But, the ground situation has changed markedly in most of the 46 constituencies, following the split in the erstwhile ruling Congress-NCP and Opposition Sena-BJP alliances. Apart from the uncertainty triggered by the changed political scenario, several local factors are working in each of the constituencies, thus rendering the situation rather complex.
“There will be keen contests in most of the constituencies. Given that all the four major parties are taking on each other, the voters — unlike in the past – have the freedom of choice while voting. In the past, we had a restriction in the choice. Say for instance, I am a Congress sympathiser and if there was no Congress candidate in my constituency, I would have willy nilly voted for the Congress’ ally NCP even though I was not in favour of it. Now that four major parties are in the fray, I can exercise my freedom of choice while voting,” veteran socialist-tuned- Congressman Ratnakar Mahajan said.
Among the first of the factors that will play a crucial role in this traditional saffron strong-hold is the split in the Sena-BJP combine votes, which would have in the normal course would have gone to one of the partners which is in the contest in a particular constituency. But, now that the Sena and BJP are taking each other head on in a majority of the constituencies, it remains to be seen as to which of the two saffron alliance partners would get bulk of their traditional votes. Given that the Congress has a wide base in Marathwada, it may benefit to an extent by the split in the saffron alliance votes.
Similarly, owing to the fact that both erstwhile ruling Democratic Front (DF) partners are contesting the polls separately, there will be a division in the traditional Congress and NCP votes. If anything, the Congress will consolidate its position in this kind of split, while the BJP and Sena will also stand to gain by the division in the votes.
Not many in the State political parties are able to assess the nature of gains that the fifth party in the fray – Raj Thackeray-led MNS – will make in this kind of a complex political scenario. Though the MNS is contesting more number of seats than it did in the 2009 polls, Raj Thackeray is no longer as big a draw as he used to be in the past. Nor has he campaigned so much as he should have that he can expect to make sizeable gains in Marathwada.
One of the factors that is going against both the Congress and BJP is absence of Vilasrao Deshmukh and Gopinath Munde in the campaign. A pan Maharashtra leader, Deshmukh — coming from Marathwada — would have come in handy for the Congress in the current political situation. A mass leader, Deshmukh had a fairly large following in Marathwada. In the absence of Deshmukh, the only other senior Congress leader from Marathwada is former chief minister Ashok Chavan. All the same, Chavan is no substitute to Deshmukh, given the oratory skills that the latter possessed.
like Deshmukh, late Munde was a force to reckon with in Marathwada. Coming from the Vanjari community, Munde was the OBC face of the BJP in not Marathwada, but the entire Maharashtra. Such was the influence of the recently departed senior BJP leader within the party and among the party’s supporters across the state that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while launching his party’s campaign in Beed, said that he would not been required to come to Maharashtra for electioneering had Munde been still around.
But, what has come in as a blessing in disguise for the BJP is the strategic alliance that Munde sewed up with the Mahadeo Jankar-led Rashtriya Samaj Paksha and Vinayak Mete-led Shiv Sangram party. With Munde’s daughter Pankaja carrying the baton of her father, the BJP will stand to benefit markedly by the support it is receiving from the Vanjara community to which Mundes belong. Similarly, Jankar is helping the BJP consolidate the Dhangar vote bank in region.
Another factor which will stand the BJP in good stead is that at least a dozen of the 15 “imported” candidates – whom it has wooed from other political parties – have the potential of romping home in the polls.
Giving as a “realistic assessment” of the poll situation in Marathwada, Mahahan said: “The Shiv Sena will bag a maximum seats in Auranganad and neighbouring Jalna, while the Congress will do well in latur, Nanded and areas in their vicinity. In Parbhani, Hingoli and Beed, the BJP will have an edge over other parties while the Sena will also bag a sizeable number of seats. In Osmanabad and neighbouring area, the NCP and Congress will share a maximum number of seats”.
Several keen contests are being witnessed between prominent politicians in the region. In former chief minister Ashok Chavan’s home constuency of Bhokar, the BJP has put up former Congress minister Dr Madhavrao Kinhalkar against the Congress’ official candidate Amita Chavan, wife of Chavan from Bhokar constituency in Nanded district of Marathwada. A bitter rival of Ashok Chavan, Kinhalkar had put the former Chief Minister in the dock in the much-discussed paid news case.
In Nanded south and Deglur constituencies, Chavan’s confidants Omprakash Pokarana and Raosaheb Anantapurkar, both sitting MlAs, are in the fray respectively.
In the neighbouring latur lok Sabha constituency where the BJP established leads in all the six Assembly segments, late Vilarao Deshmukh’s son Amit Deshmukh, a sitting MlA, is re-contesting the polls. Given the popularity that Deshmukhs enjoy in the area, Amit is expected to have a smooth sailing in the polls. In Nilanga, former chief minister Shivajirao Patil-Nilangekar’s son Ashokrao is taking on Sr Nilangekar’s grandson Sambaji Nilangekar.
In Beed, a battle royale is being witnessed between late Munde’s daughter Pankaja and estranged nephew Dhananjay Munde in Parli constituency. In Beed town, Vinayak Mete-led Shiv Sangram party, an ally of the BJP, is taking on senior NCP Minister Jayadutta Kshirsagar.
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen has put up candidates in muslim dominated constituencies in Nanded, Aurangabad and some other places. Given its impressive performance in the Nanded Municipal Corporation (NMC), one should not be surprised if the MIM, a party which was hitherto confined to Hyderabad, opens an account in the Maharashtra Assembly in the October 15 polls.