While the monsoon retreat has caught the country by surprise by bringing floods and heavy rain in Gujarat,
the forecast of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) states that monsoon is likely to weaken next week in the run up to the final retreat. According to the sources in IMD, the retreat fury of the monsoons is due to the influence of low pressure area and its cyclonic circulation over Central India. Its slow westward movement over parts of Central India is causing excess rainfall activity, especially in Gujarat, besides Saurashtra and Kutch.
The IMD experts, however, said that this low pressure activity over Gujarat and Kutch would re-curve and move in east-northeast direction during the first half of the week and eventually weaken. The sources, however, warned of another circulation forming over the north Bay of Bengal and the surrounding region which is likely to move in a west or nor’westerly direction. This will result in rainfall over Uttar Pradesh. The circulation, along with a western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir on September 28, may cause rain in the northern States on September 29 and 30.
The IMD has predicted heavy spell of rains over Gujarat and its surrounding areas, besides parts of south-west Rajasthan may continue for at least the next 48 hours. Simultaneously heavy rainfall at isolated places may also occur in Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram. The States of Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal will not be spared either from the monsoon retreat fury. However, dry weather over Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab will prevail from second half of the week, from where the monsoon has retreated.
The IMD sources further said that despite withdrawal, Delhi will continue to experience intermittent showers till the first week of October.The withdrawal of monsoon can be officially declared if there has been no rain over an area for at least five days. Presuming it will rain over northern States, including Delhi till Monday, the withdrawal can only be declared in October. According to them, this is the most delayed monsoon withdrawal in Delhi since 2006 when the retreat has usually been between September 21 and September 30.
As per official IMD figures, the country has so far received 905.5 mm as against the average of 864.1 mm showing a 5 per cent increase above normal. The rainfall received this week has shot up to 25 per cent above average with 41.1 mm of rainfall across the country.