There was everything the CPI(M) required to convert the June 27 bypoll in Kerala’s Aruvikkara Assembly constituency into a huge leftist victory but destiny would have it the other way. The defeat of the CPI(M) candidate suggests that the Kerala Marxists have perhaps forgot all the electoral lessons they had learned so far and that the party could be going the West Bengal way by losing poll after poll in the past six years.
The CPI(M) had dreamt of riding a strong anti-incumbency wave in the bypoll against the Congress-led ruling UDF whose electoral plans and practices were devised chiefly by none other than Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, accused of keeping connections with con women and protecting corrupt and immoral Ministers as seen in the solar and bar bribery scams.
Again, the CPI (M) had perhaps thought that scoring a win in the bypoll was easy with the organisational skills of former State secretary Pinarayi Vijayan who was the invisible manager of the poll campaign, the ability of Opposition leader VS Achuthanandan to inspire the masses with his speeches and the comparatively unblemished personality of its candidate M Vijayakumar, a native of the constituency.
However, the bypoll outcome proved that nothing of this worked. Vijayakumar’s destiny was to accept a humiliatingly huge defeat in the hands of Congress’s 31-year-old nominee KS Sabarinathan. This did not seem to be a surprise defeat to many as the left had not won even a single by-election since 2011 and had been terribly hit in all the major elections held since 2009.
But State party secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan still seemed to be confident about the party’s electoral prowess. “The CPI(M) is not a party you can write off with just one poll defeat. We have won elections, fallen in elections and have come up again… The UDF victory is not an expression of the general sentiment of Kerala,” he said.
Even before getting time for a preliminary review of the bypoll result, the CPI(M) leadership resorted to attacking the UDF by saying that it had bought the victory using power, money and booze, a charge that many observers interpreted as equivalent to effectively accusing the voters of being in the habit of surrendering to such temptations.
“Don’t blame the voters for your mistakes. The only way for the Marxists to avoid a West Bengal-like situation is to shed their arrogance. They are perhaps the largest political party in Kerala even now but they won’t have that status for long if they continue to fail to understand the changing political reality,” said a former Marxist theorist.
The defeat of Vijayakumar in Aruvikkara is a huge setback for Pinarayi Vijayan personally and politically. For the past several months he has been projecting himself as the lDF’s chief ministerial candidate in the next Assembly election but that plan would now face tough opposition from within the party and the front in the context of his inability to ensure even a bypoll victory for the left.
“Pinarayi may now claim the credit for leading the party to the highest number of electoral losses in its history,” said the ex-theorist. The defeat in Aruvikkara is a shocker personally for State CPI (M) chief Kodiyeri Balakrishnan also as this bypoll was the first major electoral battle the party had faced since he assumed that position in February last.
The Aruvikkara result proved that Achuthanandan, who had single-handedly taken the left to the verge of victory in the Assembly polls in 2011, was not capable of repeating that magic anymore. It was obvious that the crowds that had gathered to listen to his speeches in Aruvikkara had not transformed into votes.
Analysts are already predicting that the left is certain to suffer setbacks in the local bodies election to be held in October and the Assembly polls due in April next if the poll results of the past six years are any indication. In this context, the Kerala Marxists will have to sweat a lot to avoid slipping into a West Bengal-like situation, they say.