nIndia is among the top 30 countries at “high-risk” from the spread of the deadly coronavirus, according to a study based on the number of air travellers predicted to arrive in the countries from the worst affected cities in China.
Thailand tops the list of most “at risk” countries or regions worldwide followed by Japan, and Hong Kong. The US is 6th on the list, Australia 10th, the UK 17th and India 23rd, researchers from the University of Southampton in the UK said.
The University’s WorldPop team, Bangkok, Thailand, had compiled a list of cities and countries they believe are at high risk from the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) — which has killed over 132 people so far, and infected thousands.
It said Thailand is currently the city most at risk from a global spread of the virus. Hong Kong is second on the list, followed by Taipei in Taiwan. Sydney, New York and London are among the top 20 other major international cities ranked in the research.
Within mainland China, the cities of Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chongqing are all identified as high-risk by the researchers, along with the Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan.
“It’s vital that we understand patterns of population movement, both within China and globally, in order to assess how this new virus might spread — domestically and internationally,” said Andrew Tatem, a professor at the University of Southampton.
“By mapping these trends and identifying high-risk areas, we can help inform public health interventions, such as screenings and healthcare preparedness,” Tatem said.
The team used anonymised mobile phone and IP address data — which helps to identify devices — along with international air travel data to understand typical patterns of movement of people within China, and worldwide, during the annual 40-day Lunar New Year celebrations.
The team, including researchers from the University of Toronto in Canada, and the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, was then able to rank the top 30 most at-risk countries and cities around the world.
The researchers acknowledge that their analysis is based on ‘non-outbreak’ travel patterns, but highlight that a high proportion of people travelled with symptoms at an early stage of the outbreak, before restrictions were put in place.