India has become the first country in the world to have developed a country-level mathematical model to estimate the prevalence of TB cases, official sources said on Tuesday.
Using this model, TB incidence and mortality estimate data for India will be available by March every year, months before the annual WHO estimates are released in October, they said, adding that India can also prepare similar estimates at the state level in future.
The model was presented before the delegates from 40 countries taking part in the 36th Stop TB Partnership Board meeting in Varanasi last week. Most of them lauded it saying they would want to implement it in their countries, the sources said.
According to WHO estimates, the TB incidence rate (per 10,000) in India in 2021 was 210. Using the Indian mathematical model, it was estimated to be 196 in 2022. The WHO estimated that the TB incidence absolute number to be 29.50 lakh in 2021.