For the last two decades, Bihar politics had been dominated by lalu Prasad with all the parties challenging him and making elections lalu versus all. But now the situation has changed in the second most populous State. With RJD supremo lalu being convicted in a criminal case and disqualified to contest election, the man who ruled Bihar for 15 years directly or through his wife Rabri Devi, has joined hands with his arch-rival Nitish Kumar and the two have formed a front to take on the BJP.
In the coming Bihar Assembly election, it is going to be BJP versus all. But in this possibly direct contest, there could be two new political offshoots which might cause worry for the BJP and more to the JD(U)-RJD and Congress alliance. They are HAM and JAM.
HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha), the front floated by former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and now converted into a political party has announced to contest all the 243 seats. JAM (Janakranti Adhikar Morcha) has been launched by Madhepura MP Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav, who has been expelled from the RJD.
The two may or may not come on the same page; they are set to take position in poll arena to hit the prospects of Nitish and lalu. The political observers are however, not very certain about the poll impact these two debutant parties may make. Both HAM and JAM are still not recognised as political parties. Similarly as the merger of Janata Parivar is uncertain, there is no clarity that by the election is formally announced the two new morchas will be registered with the Election Commission of India (ECI).
There is suspicion that they could complete the formalities of registration as political parties in a short period. The HAM has reportedly submitted its documents before the ECI. But since the ECI hinting to hold Assembly election in September-October, the poll schedule is likely to be out by the end of July.
Sources said the ECI has now made the entire process of the registration of a new party quite complicated and the verification of the records would take a longer time. Under the new procedure, the ECI would order the verification of the voter ID card of each member of the new party from the electoral officers of the districts concerned which may take five to six months time.
Under these circumstances if the HAM contests election independently or in alliance with any party, its candidates would be treated as Independents and be allotted different symbols.
Pappu Yadav who showed soft corner towards Manjhi and which became ground for his expulsion from the RJD claimed his JAM would emerge as strong third option for the voters. Yadav was not certain if his front would fight as a political party separately or align with any other party or alliance. But he made it clear that he would maintain equidistance from both lalu and Nitish.
The two new outfits headed by two rebels Manjhi and Pappu are aiming to upset the main parties in Kosi and Seemanchal regions which are dominated by Muslims with sizeable chunk of backwards castes and Dalits. In the 2010 Assembly polls, the JD(U) and BJP then in alliance had bagged 30 of the 37 Assembly seats in Kosi and Seemanchal while the RJD, Congress and others could win only seven seats. If Manjhi and Pappu join hands, the two could make going difficult for both the JD(U) and RJD and also the BJP in those regions.