With coronavirus cases rising by hundreds and deaths multiplying with each passing day, the Government on Saturday came out with a five-phased ‘containment plan for larger outbreaks’ on the perception that current Covid-19 spread mimics the H1N1 pandemic of 2009.
“This suggests that while the spread of COVID-19 in our population could be high, it’s unlikely that it will be uniformly affecting all parts of the country. This calls for differential approach to different regions of the country, while mounting a strong containment effort in hot spots,” said the document that visualises five different step-wise scenarios in case of any such outbreaks in the country.
It begins with travel-related cases reported in India followed by local transmission of COVID-19, large outbreaks amenable to containment, wide-spread community transmission of COVID-19 disease and finally to the point, if or when India becomes endemic for the deadly disease. The Government current strategy is focussed on these five points aiming to combat the deadly disease.
So far, the virus has killed over 80 people and infected over 3000 in the country. Large number of cases has been reported from Delhi, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Uttar Pradesh.
“Large scale measures to contain COVID-19 over large territories have been tried in China,” notes the document prepared by the Union Health Ministry.
In India also, clusters have appeared in multiple States, particularly Kerala, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Punjab, Karnataka, Telangana and UT of Ladakh while 211 districts are now reporting COVID-19 cases and the risk of further spread remains very high, as per the document.
Current estimates of the incubation period of COVID range from 2-14 days, and these estimates will be refined as more data become available.
Strategic approach for scenario include travel related cases reported from India which focuses on early detection through universal screening of all International passengers at Points of Entries (PoEs) and tracking travellers in the community who have travelled from affected countries.
Talking about the possibility of local transmission of COVID-2019 disease, which so far the Government has denied, the document said that local transmission will lead to clustering of cases in time and space, epidemiologically linked to a travel related case or a positive case that has links to a travel related case. The cluster containment strategy will be extensive contact tracing and active search for cases in containment zone, testing all suspect cases and high risk contacts, as per the document.
“Geographic quarantine and containment strategy proposes defining the area of operation, active surveillance for cases and contacts in the identified geographic zone and expanding laboratory capacity for testing all suspect cases, high risk contacts and SARI cases. Implementation of social distancing measures with strict perimeter control and providing chemoprophylaxis with Hydroxychloroquine to all asymptomatic healthcare workers and asymptomatic household contacts of laboratory confirmed cases has been further course of action.”
However, if the containment plan is not able to contain the outbreak and large numbers of cases start appearing, then a decision will need to be taken by State administration to abandon the containment plan and start on mitigation activities, it stated.