Due to erratic rainfall and drought in around 250 districts across the country, the overall food grain production may fall by 3.46 million tonnes (MT) in 2018-19 crop year (July-June) despite record rice output. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, overall food grain production is pegged of 281.37 million tonnes this year as compared to 284.83 million tonnes in 2017-18. As per the data, rice production is estimated to touch record 115.60 MT in 2018-19 from 112.91 MT in the previous year. In other words, food grain production may fall by one per cent in the current crop year. The second advance estimates of Ministry of Agriculture shows, wheat production is expected to touch 99.12 million tonnes, lower than the target of 102.20 million tonnes.
“Rice production is at an all-time high. We had set a target of 114 million tonnes. But we expect the output to reach 115.6 million tonnes. There will be no shortage of foodgrains in the country. We will be able to export more if international markets are competitive,” said a senior agriculture department official, who did not wish to be identified. Wheat output is pegged slightly lower at 99.12 MT from 99.70 MT in the previous year.
According to the estimate, pulses production is likely to be 24.02 million tonnes, lower than the target of 25.95 million tonnes. However, the estimated output is more than last year’s second advance estimate of 23.95 million tonnes.
The cumulative rainfall in the country during the monsoon season (June to September 2018) was 9 per cent lower than long period average (LPA). The cumulative rainfall in north west India, central India and south peninsula during that period has been normal on the whole. As per IMD, 250 of the 681 districts across the country have faced deficient rainfall this year.
“The production figures are subject to revision on account of more precise information flowing over time, it added.
The total oilseeds production in the country during 2018-19 is estimated at 31.50 million tonnes, 1.62 million tonnes higher than the 29.88 million tonnes output in second advance estimates of 2017-18. The production of oilseeds during 2018-19 is 1.85 million tonnes higher than the average oilseeds production.
With an increase of 27.61 million tonnes over 2017-18, total production of sugarcane in the country during 2018-19 is estimated at 380.83 million tonnes. Further, sugarcane production during 2018-19 is 31.05 million tonnes higher than the average sugarcane production of 349.78 million tonnes.
Production of cotton has been pegged lower at 30.09 million bales (of 170 kg each) from 34.88 million bales, while jute & mesta output is seen at 10.07 million bales (of 180 kg each) against 10.13 million bales.
India has been witnessing bumper foodgrains, oilseeds, cotton, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables over the last few years, which has resulted in lower prices for farmers.
As per data, as many as 100 districts of the country have witnessed a drought like-situation, triggered by failure of south-west monsoon. This frequency is now increasing in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Maharashtra, among a few other States.