While a revival of monsoon is expected over Central and South India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that dry and sunny weather conditions will largely prevail over North and north-west India, including Punjab, Haryana and adjoining regions over the next few days.
However, scattered rainfall may occur in the hilly states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand , Jammu and Kashmir besides in isolated patches of North-west parts of the country from August 29 to September 2.The IMD sources predicted, “In the next 24 hours there will be an increase in rainfall activity over central and South India which is likely to continue for the next few days.”
According to the data from IMD, the country has so far received 470.2 mm of rain as against the normal 571.1 mm. Average rainfall in the monsoon that started in June was 18% below average. The rainfall deficit in the past week has been at 19%. As per area-wise distribution at least 45% of the country has received deficient/scanty rainfall.
According to weather experts, weak rainfall activity is however likely to continue in September over the northern region. Barring some isolated patchy rain from August 29 there are little chances of revival in the region.
So far, North-West India has the highest deficit of 29%, followed by East and North eastern part with 23%. While Central India has narrowed its rain fall shortage to 9 %, South Peninsula is bracing with 15% crisis.
As per data from IMD, 20 out of the country’s 36 subdivisions received excess and normal rainfall this season. The figures pointed out that northern states of Punjab and Haryana received one of the lowest rains at 65% and 64% below normal, respectively.This is followed by regions in Western UP, where the deficit is 57%. However, Marathwada region has also received a shortfall of 54% rain whilethe figure stands at 52% in Telangana.
According to weather experts, chances of an El Nino developing this year is however 50%, The IMD had earlier suggest that rainfall as a whole across the country is likely to be 87% of long Period Average from the earlier predicted 93 percent earlier due to its slow start. The rainfall is said to be “below normal” rainfall when it is 90-96 per cent of lPA. However, the latest overall figure of 87% rains indicates “Deficient” rains.