India

Decoding Haryana: Can Cong defy anti-incumbency wave?

Amitabh Shukla

Haryana has been a Congress bastion for the last 10 years and both in 2004 and 2009 when the party formed Government at the Centre, the State proved to be the proverbial key to New Delhi. While the party won all 10 seats in 2004, it got an impressive nine seats in the 2009 polls.

Ten years of anti-incumbency, both at the Centre as well as the State, has taken a heavy toll and Congress looks weary and jaded in the State, finding it difficult to handle the onslaught of the BJP driven by its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The BJP has traditionally been weak in the land where Arya Samaj had a great influence and still dominates the socio-religious consciousness of the people. The party has always preferred to go into alliance with a regional player due to its limited presence in the rural area. This time, it is in alliance with the Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress.

Main Opposition Indian National lok Dal (INlD) is facing an identity crisis with two of its top leaders — the father-son duo of Om Prakash Chautala and Ajay Chautala — in jail for over a year after being convicted in the teachers’ recruitment scam. Younger son Abhay Chautala is steering the party but except for certain pockets, the party’s hold is on wane. In the last two elections, the INlD failed to win even a single lok Sabha seat and this time it is hopeful of a better performance and has high hopes from Hisar. The fourth generation of Devi lal’s family — Dushyant Chautala, grandson of OP Chautala — is pitted here against another dynast, Kuldeep Bishnoi, son of the tallest non-Jat leader of the State, Bhajan lal.

With election campaign coming to an end in the State, all eyes are now on polling on April 10. We take a look on the issues and the seats in the State.

Jat Reservation: No one in Haryana thought that Jats would be declared backward as they are the dominant caste—socially, economically and politically. They control the reins of power with the Chief Minister from the community and also the leader of Opposition. However, the Bhupinder Singh Hooda Government thought otherwise and took help from UPA in the Centre to declare Jats as OBCs.

Khaps: khaps made infamous due to a series of honour killings, every political party seeks their support, most of them covertly and some openly for electoral success. There is no doubt that they influence the voting pattern in the countryside in the well-knit society where family and caste play an important role in determining social identity of a person. But it is equally true that the support of around a dozen and half Khaps is divided.

Anti-incumbency: Bhupinder Singh Hooda has been in power for two terms as Chief Minister and the State would go to Assembly polls in October this year, soon after the lok Sabha polls. Hooda’s tenure coincided with that of the Congress in the Centre and there is double anti-incumbency in the State.