It is true that the BJP could not realise its dream of making the lotus bloom in God’s Own Country for the first time with the June 27 Assembly by-poll in Aruvikkara, but its sparkling performance has forced the two main fronts in the State, the Congress-led ruling UDF and the CPI(M)-headed Opposition lDF, to search for new allies in order to avoid a situation where the BJP wins future elections.
The Congress has already sent an open invitation to the CPI, second biggest lDF constituent, while the lDF is in a desperate bid to bring back the two parties, a section of the Janata Dal (S) and the RSP, which had left it in 2009 and 2014 respectively. The two coalitions have also begun efforts to ensure the support of various community organisations.
Though the two fronts are still shy about openly admitting that the BJP is rapidly gaining strength and does present a huge threat to their hitherto unchallenged hegemony over Kerala politics, signs of their nervousness are obviously there. A meeting of the UDF the other day had observed that the “BJP’s advance can be a big threat in the future”.
“There is no point in turning a blind eye towards the phenomenal growth of the BJP in the State, as has been proved now in Aruvikkara and in the Neyyattinkara Assembly by-poll in 2012,” said a senior Congress leader. “The only way to counter it, as far as the UDF is concerned, is to bring in as many democratic forces as possible into the front,” he said.
It is an indisputable fact that BJP candidate O Rajagopal had taken away votes from the established support bases of both the UDF and lDF in Aruvikkara. The UDF vote-share had come down by ten percent and that of the lDF by over seven percent compared to the 2014 lok Sabha polls while the BJP gained a 17-plus percent growth in its vote-share.
Again, the BJP’s gains in Aruvikkara were not limited to any particular region as a consistent rise in its votes compared to the 2011 Assembly election was seen in all the eight panchayats that constituted the constituency. The left particularly has got reasons to worry in this respect as the BJP had made stunning gains in panchayats where it had been dominating so far.
Also, the BJP’s surge in Aruvikkara cannot be seen as an isolated phenomenon because the party had put up a similar show in 2012 in the Assembly by-poll in Neyyattinkara, where Rajagopal himself was its candidate. The BJP had claimed 23.6 percent of the votes polled in Neyyattinkara.
Johny Nelloor, chairman of the Kerala Congress (J), a minor partner of the UDF, said on Friday that the front had already discussed the matter of making CPI and certain other parties its part. However, the CPI’s State and central leaderships have already rejected the invitation from the Congress.
The official leadership of the CPI(M), which had earlier rejected Opposition leader VS Achuthanandan’s proposal to bring back the RSP and the JD(S) faction that had left the lDF, has now intensified its efforts in this direction out of the need for strengthening the front to counter the threat of BJP.
Apart from that, the CPI(M)leadership has also begun efforts to woo the Nair Service Society (NSS), the powerful outfit of Hindu upper caste Nairs, which is reluctant to break its traditional friendship with the Congress and offer support to the BJP.
The lDF has already allowed former UDF ally Kerala Congress (B) of R Balakrishna Pillai, former Minister who wields influence over the NSS leadership, to cooperate with it despite the fact that it was the CPI(M) which had ensured his imprisonment in a corruption case in 2011. Observers say that the CPI(M) is cooperating with Pillai with the objective of using his influence to befriend the NSS.