The chances of the BJP in claiming maiden victory from the historical Phulpur seat — represented thrice by the first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru — delicately hangs in balance in the lok Sabha elections this year.
Besides, the Brahmin voters, the decision of Kurmi voters — mainly Patels — will decide whether the party candidate Kesav Prasad Maurya wins riding on the Modi wave or not.Keshav, a sitting MlA of BJP from Sirathu seat in neighbouring Kaushambi, is pitted against the sitting MP and BSP candidate Kapil Muni Karwaria, Congress candidate Mohd Kaif and Samajwadi Party candidate Dharmraj Singh Patel.
Numerically speaking, the Patels, Brahmins, Kayastha and Muslims hold the key to victory from Phulpur. The closest BJP had been to winning in Phulpur was in 1998 and 1999 lS elections when the party candidate Beni Madhav Bind polled the second highest votes after the winning SP candidates.This time around, the BJP candidates’ prospects seem to be boosted by the party’s alliance with Apna Dal that intimately affects the Patel voters in five Assembly segments of the Parliamentary seat.
Anupriya Patel, daughter of Apna Dal founder late Sonelal Patel, in an election rally in Soraon under Phulpur, injected hopes in the saffron camp. Bolstering the Modi wave she termed the BJP prime ministerial candidate as a Babbar Sher (lion) and appealed the public to vote for Keshav.
However, the challenge before him in this election will be to strengthen the Modi wave in his favour with personal charisma that he clearly misses. Also, he would have to work real hard to wean the Brahmin voters from Kapil Muni Karwaria who enjoys wide acceptance as the community leader in Allahabad including his Parliamentary constitutency. The Patel voters were also likely to be split on the caste lines and a sizeable chunk was well expected to vote for Dharmraj Patel of SP. In such a scenario, the role of Apna Dal will be crucial for the BJP candidate.
The Phulpur constituency with a total voter count of 17,36,357 is composed of three rural and two urban constituency. The urban constituencies Allahabad North and Allahabad West are notorious for very low voting percentage. This translates that the urban voters, forming majority of BJP supporters, shy away from giving their votes when it counts. This could be a real trouble for the BJP.
In urban pockets of Phulpur, the ex-Team India member and Congress candidate Mohammad Kaif was likely to appeal more, specially to the younger voters. However, Keshav in his inimitable dyanamic style surrounded by his ecstatic supporters firmly dreamt of victory on the sole basis of Modi wave.