Before the Budget Session, Opposition parties will meet and devise their strategies for coordination in both Houses. NDA partners have already met, and the Government and Speaker will hold an all-party meet before the Session starts on February 23. Opposition leaders are planning to meet during those days only.
Parliamentary managers of the Congress plan to attack the Narendra Modi Government in both Houses. In the last two Sessions, the Congress didn’t allow any work to take place, but the party was able to stop the Government in Rajya Sabha only due to its number strength. In lok Sabha, all proceedings went on despite the chaos.
This time, Congress leaders want to disrupt the Government’s work in lok Sabha as well. They are of the view that if 34 MPs of TMC help them, then lok Sabha can be easily disrupted. The Congress also wants to rope in BJD and some other parties. That is the reason why the Congress will focus more on corruption issues rather than intolerance and religious issues.
This is an election year and no party wants to blow up religious issue. So, the Congress has decided to raise the corruption issues. Just before the Session, the party has found an issue from Gujarat where the Government had allegedly allotted land to companies with close business links to Anar Patel, CM Anandiben Patel’s daughter. Apart from this, the Congress will rake up the issues of Vyapam scam and lalit Modi too.
THE HINDUTVA AGENDA
During his Varanasi visit, BJP chief Amit Shah said Narendra Modi is a symbol of Hindu rashtra, and it is a matter of pride for Hindus that Modi is the Prime Minister of the country. He also said that the BJP is guarding the traditions of Hindu religion. This statement is important as it is expected to affect the party’s pan-India politics.
leaders of the States where elections will be held soon are already trying to polarise the votes. It is amply clear that in the elections, which are scheduled in the next two months, Hinduism will be a major issue.
ElECTION PREPARATION
PM Modi’s activities have increased in the five States where elections are scheduled soon, be it Assam, Kerala or Tamil Nadu. Though he will not be campaigning in the five States as he did in Bihar, he will not leave any stone unturned.
In fact, these elections will have an effect on not just those States but in Rajya Sabha also. Two seats of Assam and four seats of Kerala will be vacated in April. So, they will be elected by the present MlAs only. But six seats from Tamil Nadu will be vacant in June and elections for six seats of West Bengal will be held next year.
So, the BJP will try to win at least that many seats in both States which will be enough to secure at least one Rajya Sabha seat. For this, the party has to win at least 40 seats in both States. If the party wins in Kerala and Assam, it will benefit in the RS elections after two years.
The party wants Modi’s presence in non-BJP States also. If we talk about lok Sabha seats, probably the BJP has reached its maximum in the States of Hindi belt. Seats of Hindi belt may go down in the next elections, so Modi will work hard in non-Hindi States also.
CONFUSION OVER AllIANCE
Elections will be held in many States in April and May, but the Congress is in dilemma over alliance, except in Kerala. In almost all States, the party is thinking about fighting alone, and for this, it has started preparations on the ground level. Rahul Gandhi is also set to visit States where elections are scheduled in the coming months.
Sources say that in almost all States, regional parties are ready to leave only a few seats for the Congress. The Congress will not be able to get as many seats as it had got the last time if it goes into alliances. In Tamil Nadu, DMK is probably thinking about leaving only half the seats for the Congress than it had left in the last elections. The last time, the Congress had fought on 63 seats but had won only five. That is the reason why DMK is insisting on leaving not more than 30-35 seats for the Congress this time.
In West Bengal, if the Congress agrees, it can go into an alliance with the left, and if it is ready to compromise on the seats, even Mamata Banerjee can tie up with the party. But in both situations, the Congress will get very few seats.
Apart from the apprehensions of polarisation, one of the reasons why the Congress didn’t form an alliance in Assam was because Badruddin Ajmal’s party wanted to fight on almost half the seats.
JDU’S GAME PlAN
It was in 1996 when the last Government was formed under the leadership of a non-BJP, non-Congress leader. At that time, Janata Dal had got 45 seats, and first HD Deve Gowda and later IK Gujral became the Prime Minister. This situation of almost two decades ago is apparent in the policies of Nitish Kumar, and his party has started the preparation for the next lok Sabha Elections. The JDU has speeded up its attempt to form a unified Janata Parivar. This attempt was left midway before the elections, but now it is being taken forward with new zeal again.
In fact, Nitish and his political advisor are well aware that they will have to compulsorily go into an alliance in Bihar and in this scenario they won’t be able to win more than 10 seats in the lok Sabha Elections. And if you win only 10 seats, you can’t claim candidature for the PM post. In the same manner, if JDU is stuck only to Bihar, there will be no option for a pre-poll alliance with other parties.
That is why the merger of Ajit Singh’s party into JDU is on the cards, and it will be the first step towards a bigger Janata Parivar. If this is successful, then the attempt for INlD’s merger will start, and after that talks will resume with Deve Gowda. Some leaders want RJD to also merge with JDU, but lalu Prasad Yadav is probably not ready. The new party may fight on the symbol of a banyan tree.
MIGHT OF REGIONAl PARTIES
In the coming Assembly Elections, the Congress and BJP will not have a direct fight anywhere except Assam. Barring Assam, the BJP is not in the fight anywhere. The situation is the same with the Congress, but except Assam, it has some stake in Kerala because it has been in a years-old alliance with IUMl and Kerala Congress.
In these five States, regional parties are powerful. That is why it is being said that these elections are important for both big parties. This will give a clear indication on how the two parties will perform in UP elections next year. It is being speculated that in these five States, regional parties will perform well in comparison to the two national parties.
In West Bengal, the main fight is between TMC and the left; the Congress and BJP will be in the fight on very few seats. In Tamil Nadu, the main fight will be between DMK and AIADMK. DMDK is the potential contender for number three position. The Congress and BJP will fight with regional parties. In Puducherry, the Congress will fight with the ruling All Indian NR Congress, but it will not get more than 7-10 seats. AIADMK will also be in the fight there.
The Congress is leading the UDF alliance in Kerala, but last time it had won only 43 seats. CPM was the largest party in Kerala. This time also UDF, not the Congress, will take on lDF. On some seats, the BJP will also be in the fight. In Assam, both parties are strong but there too the fight will not be direct. All eyes will be on Ajmal’s AIUDF, which had won 18 seats in the last elections. Eyes will also be on BPF, which is also the alliance partner of the BJP and AGP.