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New anti-BJP alliance on cards after AAP's big win?

Hari Shankar Vyas

Mamata Banerjee, whom the BJP seems to be targetting the most these days, congratulated Kejriwal through a tweet. Before the elections, she had announced her support for AAP. Even Nitish Kumar had backed Kejriwal and after his victory he immediately congratulated him. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav also congratulated Kejriwal

The victory of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Delhi has raised hopes for a new alliance against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Anti-BJP parties had started congratulating Kejriwal even when he started leading in trends. After the victory, AAP leader Ashish Khetan cited the slogan of Narendra Modi and said whatever was in the heart of Delhi was in the heart of the country. In this manner, AAP has expressed his national ambition.

Mamata Banerjee, whom the BJP seems to be targetting the most these days, congratulated Kejriwal through a tweet. Before the elections, she had announced her support for AAP. Even Nitish Kumar had backed Kejriwal and after his victory he immediately congratulated him. UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav also congratulated Kejriwal.

Probably the three leaders are seeing the possibility of an alliance with Kejriwal. Reliable sources say if Nitish parts ways with lalu Prasad Yadav just before elections, then he can get support from Kejriwal. Similarly, if Mamata doesn’t take help from the Congress, she might get AAP backing.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSElF

History repeats itself; first time as a disaster and second time as drama. This is truly applicable to the BJP in terms of the Delhi elections. The Congress has been wiped out in the Capital, but the BJP’s defeat is worse than that of the Congress. The saffron party had got 32 seats in the last elections, and this time the party has managed to get only three. BJP leaders can say that the party has got 34 per cent votes, but if there are no seats then the vote share doesn’t mean anything.

Barely eight months ago, the BJP had not given the post of loP to the Congress in lok Sabha. It had said that since the Congress didn’t get the requisite percentage of the total seats of lok Sabha, it could not claim the post of loP. Though leaders of Congress said they had got 18 per cent of the total votes polled, the BJP didn’t pay attention.

And now the BJP is in such a situation that it will not get loP in Delhi Assembly. The Congress has not got space in the Assembly, and the BJP will not get loP. It’s true that 34 per cent vote ie more than 25,000 votes can’t give loP to the BJP. If the party had shown sympathy to the Congress, then Kejriwal would have also shown sympathy towards the BJP.

WHAT’S IN STORE FOR CONGIJ

The Congress is facing the greatest dilemma. This time the party has been wiped away in Delhi. In the last elections, the Congress had got 25 per cent votes. Though it had got only eight seats, the vote share was not poor. In the lok Sabha Elections, the party didn’t get even a single seat but got around 15 per cent votes. It means, the Congress was relevant from the view point of vote share. But this time, its vote share has decreased to a mere 10 per cent. It means that for the last three elections, its vote share has been on a decline. leaders of the Congress are worried that people are fed up with the Modi Government but its benefit is going to AAP instead of the Congress. It means this is not the situation when people would consider the Congress as an alternative to the BJP and vote for it.

Before this, the Congress had been defeated in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. It means the party has been completely wiped out in only 13 months. So, the question is: what would the leaders of the Congress do nowIJ

In the next two years, 11 more States will have elections. There are four UTs out of these 11. The Congress is ruling in Assam, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, and is hopeful of making a comeback in Punjab.

So, the big question is about its strategy after the Delhi elections. In the past 13 months, the Congress has been fighting alone in all States where elections have been held. What should be its strategy in States where elections are going to be held, especially in Bihar, UP, WB and AssamIJ It doesn’t have any alliance in Bengal, and in Bihar, the party leaders don’t want any alliance. The party has an alliance only in Kerala.

BJP’S BIHAR DIlEMMA

Election results of Delhi have put the BJP in a dilemma. When the elections started and the BJP had played its masterstroke in Kiran Bedi, then nobody would have thought that the party would face such a bad defeat. Before that, the BJP had fixed the date as per its convenience and had pumped in all resources. So, after facing defeat, there is dilemma over the strategy in Bihar.

Seeing the political situation of Bihar, the first concern of the BJP is whether immediate elections will be favourable or should they be held on the scheduled dateIJ In Delhi, the BJP delayed the elections and continued the President’s rule, and hence faced losses. That is why, the possibility of President’s rule can’t be thought about in Bihar. But in the scenario which is prevailing after the Delhi elections, immediate elections can also not be a good option.

BJP leaders are of the view that if Nitish is allowed to become the CM again, it will be disastrous for the party, and to support Jitan Ram Manjhi will also be fatal politics. There is also a question mark on whether the party should return to its old strategy or should it go ahead after projecting a leader against Nitish. And if the party has to project a leader, who and when should he be projectedIJ This is also a great dilemma because delay in projection of Kiran Bedi is also said to be one of the causes of defeat in Delhi.

THE BIG BATTlE OF BIHAR

Even before the results of Delhi elections, the BJP had started the preparation for the next big battle. Bihar is the next big challenge for the party. Bihar elections will have an effect on at least three States ie UP, WB and Assam, where elections are scheduled in the next two years. The first test of the proposed Janata family will be in Bihar only.

That is the reason why BJP National President Amit Shah has instructed party leaders to start preparations for Bihar. It is being said that BJP leaders are seeing a possibility of early elections in Bihar. Consequently, the party has decided to extract maximum benefit from the present crisis in the JDU. The BJP is of the view that if Nitish becomes the CM again, the battle would be more difficult.

Nitish can do the politics of brand and personality in Bihar, and there is no face of his caliber in the State. likewise, if he again runs a Government, he can announce many populist schemes for Mahadalits and ultra backwards. He can launch schemes to distribute cycles, uniforms and radios. He can go ahead with the slogan of ‘development with justice’ and may pose a big challenge for the BJP. That is why the BJP wants to stop Nitish and for this Manjhi has a weapon.

ONlY REVIEW, NO ACTION

Infighting in the Congress had started even before the results of Delhi elections. Many leaders raised questions over the preparations for the elections, way of contesting, and organisation. The in-charge general secretary had conceded defeat before the results and had said that there was no organisation in the State.

 Arvinder Singh lovely took over the command almost a year ago, then who stopped the party from putting its organisation in placeIJ Sources in the Congress say that for any State president it is very difficult to make organisational set up for the party and get a green signal from the party high command.

However, many leaders raised questions on the strategy of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. They say the party has been losing for the past two to three years. Except one or two elections, the Congress has faced defeat almost everywhere. There was review of every defeat, but no action was taken.

 Despite great efforts by Rahul, the Congress was badly defeated but no action was taken against anyone. Nobody was held responsible for defeat in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Even in Maharashtra and Haryana, those who held the command should have been held accountable for the rout. However, it has been almost eight months, but no action has been taken for the lok Sabha disaster.