RJD and JDU have made the same mistake that had been committed by lalu Prasad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan before the 2009 lok Sabha Elections. lalu and Paswan, after assessing their vote banks, had left the Congress in the lurch and it was compelled to go alone. Nitish Kumar made the same miscalculation in 2014 lok Sabha Elections. He left the BJP but didn’t create any other secular alliance.
This time also lalu and Nitish have taken the Congress in, but have left many other parties to march on with separate politics and ideology. As a result, other parties are gearing up for the third and fourth fronts, which are bound to affect the grand alliance.
Earlier, it was being speculated that Nitish would tie up with the left front also. During the lok Sabha Elections, Nitish had left two seats for them. But this time, he distanced himself from the three left parties, and now they have formed a separate front. When CPI, CPM and CPI-Ml are fighting separately, RJD and JDU alliance will be adversely affected. A fourth front is also in the offing in Bihar. leaders like Sadhu Yadav, Pappu Yadav, Dadan Yadav and Nagmani have already formed their parties and are now trying to forge an alliance. NCP’s Tariq Anwar is also not happy, and if his resentment persists, then the grand alliance will be at bigger loss.
MANMOHAN in TROUBlE
Manmohan Singh’s problems are set to multiply. After the coal scam, questions are being raised on his office’s role in the CWG scam also. The CAG report has mentioned that when Manmohan was the PM, his office had intervened in the CWG process. CAG also said that two Sports Ministers of the UPA Government — Sunil Dutt and Mani Shankar Aiyar — didn’t want Suresh Kalmadi to be given the responsibility of organising the CWG. Despite that, the PMO intervened and Kalmadi was given the green signal.
Even in the coal scam, Manmohan’s problems will increase. Madhu Koda has filed an application in CBI special court that Manmohan should be made an accused in the case. Koda’s argument is that the CM only gives recommendations, and the final approval is given by the Coal Ministry.
The coal block allocated on Koda’s recommendation had been finally approved by Manmohan, the then Coal Minister. After filing an application in court, Koda is now planning to make it a political issue. He wants that recommendations made by other CMs at that time should also be probed.
CENTRE SOFT on MAMaTA
The attitude of the Centre and BJP has changed towards West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee. The BJP has changed its strategy on the issues of political attack on Mamata and is helping her Government too. BJP leaders have also stopped targeting her. Some say when the Congress and left started coming closer, the BJP changed its strategy. The BJP is of the view that it won’t gain much by attacking or criticising Mamata, and if attacks on her continue, then the Congress and left will benefit. So, there is a change in the BJP’s strategy.
That is the reason why the WB Government has changed its approach towards the Centre. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has candidly said that political disagreement will not stop funds to WB, and the development of the State will not suffer. Probably, Railway Minister Suresh Prabhu has also increased funds for Bengal. Mamata’s party TMC has also got good news from the CBI. After interrogating many leaders of the party and analysing their bank accounts, the CBI said there were no illegal transactions between chit fund company Saradha and TMC. This has come as a big relief for Mamata.
REAl HEADACHE FOR RAHUl
Rahul Gandhi is finding it extremely difficult to handle the party kshatrapas. His action in Parliament, his padyatras in many States and his attacking mood against the Government gave a message that his leadership was established. leaders of the Congress were elated with the idea that Rahul had become a natural leader and could be given the party reins any time. But results of the local body elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have put a big question on his leadership.
The effect of these elections can be seen in the North-East where Himanta Biswa Sarma has probably taken a decision. Rahul had met Sarma and tried to make him stay in the party. At one point it seemed that he was ready, but suddenly he decided to leave the party. This was also seen as Rahul’s failure.
In the same manner, Rahul has not been able to appoint the leader of his choice as Punjab’s party president. Probably, he would put his choice forward through Ahmed Patel, political advisor of Sonia Gandhi. The names were: Ravneet Bittu, Kuljit Nagra and Amrinder Singh Raja. But the three bigwigs of the State — Amarinder Singh, Rajinder Kaur Bhattal and Pratap Singh Bajwa — rejected all names. The same crisis is prevailing against his youth brigade in Haryana, Jharkhand and some other States.
NON-IAS OFFICERS in GOVT
Is the importance of IAS officers diminishing in the Government of IndiaIJ There are many IAS officers in the PMO and among the personal staff of the PM, but it’s a fact that of late non-IAS officers are being preferred to look after governance. The posts which were occupied by IAS officers are now being given to officers from other cadres.
At the Centre, a joint secretary level officer looked after the work, and normally IAS officers were chosen for such posts. But the Government seems to have changed this tradition. More than 50 joint secretaries have been appointed from non-IAS cadre. The same thing is happening in the case of secretaries.
Apart from ministries, non-IAS officers are being appointed even at PSUs and constitutional bodies. Recently, IPS officer Karnail Singh was appointed as the Enforcement Director. This is the first time that an IPS officer has been given this post.
Similarly, officer from railway services, Ashwani lohani, has been appointed as the CMD of Air India. Before this, revenue services officer KV Chaudhary had been appointed as CVC. He is the first non-IAS officer to occupy this post.
WHAT Will TARUN GOGOI DOIJ
Assembly Elections of 2016 in Assam will be a tough task for CM Tarun Gogoi. He has won thrice but this time he is facing big challenges. His problems have increased after Sarma decided to leave the party. Though Gogoi thinks Sarma was the strength of the party, he believes there will be no impact of his resignation. In fact, reality is quite different. Sarma is very powerful in many parts of Assam and can damage the Gogoi Government right now.
The BJP leadership is not ready for this. Sarma has challenged that if the BJP is ready to give tickets to his MlAs, then he can break them away from the Congress. But the BJP is not in a mood to topple the Gogoi Government as the Assembly Elections will be held at the beginning of the next year.
So the question is what would Gogoi do nowIJ Sarma had told the Congress high command several times that Hagrama Mohilary of BPF and Badruddin Ajmal had left the Congress alliance only due to Gogoi.
In the present situation, the Congress is not in a position to do anything. Mohilary’s party BPF has given support to the BJP. With this support, the BJP is in a position to polarise Hindu votes. In reply, if Muslim voters go with Ajmal, then the Congress will be in the situation in which the BJP is today. If the Congress manages to go into an alliance with Ajmal’s party, polarisation will be in favour of the BJP and BPF.
SEAT-SHARING IN BIHAR
The BJP is facing problems in seat-sharing arrangements with its alliance partners in Bihar. The party is maintaining silence and all three partners have become apprehensive. They think the BJP is doing politics like in Maharashtra and Haryana, and will announce the seat-sharing arrangement at the last moment. Then either there will be no option left for them or they will have to leave the alliance like the Shiv Sena and HJC.
Sources say the BJP is giving very few seats to its partners. In fact, it wants to fight on 175 seats and has started negotiations on 20 more seats. That means the BJP can leave maximum 80 seats for its partners and the three parties will have to share these.
Delay caused by the BJP has made the alliance partners restless and they have started holding meetings in and out of Delhi. Upendra Kushwaha has met Paswan. Probably, Paswan’s party is expecting 40 seats. Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi are expecting 60 seats. The three alliance partners are saying that they can settle for minimum 90 seats.
This means the BJP will have to fight on 153 and leave 90 for its partners. Probably this is being considered as a good equation but the BJP wants to fight on so many seats that it can reach near majority on its own.