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End of coalition politics in India?

Hari Shankar Vyas

The BJP is hopeful that many old allies, who were in the NDA during the Vajpayee regime, can return to its fold. It is said that after the exit polls, the BJP is upbeat and has started talking with prospective allies. However, the party is also worried that it will not be in majority in the Rajya Sabha. The Congress is still the largest party in the upper house so new partners will be needed for the BJP in this context.

Reportedly, the names being considered are Karunanidhi or Jayalalithaa. They are also in contact with Naveen Patnaik. Speculations are rife that Jagan Mohan and K Chandrashekhar Rao will also join the NDA. Some of the leaders are also trying to bring in Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee. It is said that the RSS and Narendra Modi have given their nod to add new partners.

BOOTH CAPTURING DAYS RETURN

Have old days of booth capturing as prevalent in the ’90s returnedIJ During the elections, many parties alleged that there was booth capturing, bogus voting and scientific rigging. With this, questions have been raised over the functioning of the Election Commission (EC). These allegations have been leveled by many parties and for many States. Though, it is also true that the EC is not paying attention to these allegations.

The BJP has alleged of loot of votes in many parts of West Bengal, Eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. With these allegations, Modi himself has made scathing attacks on the EC. The left parties have alleged TMC of loot of vote with facts and evidences. The CPM has demanded re-polling on 800 booths. likewise, the AAP too has alleged booth capturing in Haryana and has demanded re-polling in some of the booths in Gurgaon and adjoining areas, and Amethi too.

CONG AND JMM SEPERATE

Exit polls have predicted the worst results for the Congress led UPA. The Congress, RJD and the JMM have fought together. But it seems it didn’t prove to be of any help. Not only this, tension between ministers of the Congress and the JMM has increased over issues of functioning of the Government. Rajendra Singh, the most senior Minister of Jharkhand, has given a statement against his own Government. On the other hand Congress State president Sukhdeo Bhagat has also raised questions on the functioning of the Government.

The young Chief Minister Hemant Soren is in no mood to compromise either with his party’s leader or with the coalition partners. He has expelled many of his leaders too. He is ready to both sacrifice his Government as well as go for early polls which are scheduled in December. On Monday, there was an important meeting of JMM leaders and it was decided that party would go alone in Assembly elections.

BJP REPlACING CONGRESS

leaders of the Congress are less worried that their seats are going to decrease but more worried that the BJP is getting stronger in new States. The Congress has been saying time and again that the BJP is not a pan-India party and it doesn’t have existence in many States. But this myth is proving to be wrong in this election. The BJP has made its foothold in the southern and eastern States which were old bastions of the Congress. The party is most worried about its status in Tamil Nadu, Seemandhra, Orissa, and West Bengal and Kerala.

lAST COAlITION POlITICSIJ

Is this lok Sabha election the last one for coalition politicsIJ Will India move towards bipartite system after thisIJ In 1984, it was the last time when the Government was formed with full majority and after that, coalition politics had started in the country. But at that time there was also a single party system. The Congress was the pan-Indian party and to challenge it, there was the left in more than one State. Jan Sangh and BJP had a limited presence. But, the scenario will change after this election.

This is the first time when any other party has stood up against the Congress as a pan-India party. And going by poll results, the BJP has broken the myth about it being a party of the Hindi belt only. Riding on Modi’s image, the party has become stronger from Kerala to Kashmir, and Maharashtra to Assam.

However, in spite of the emergence of the BJP, leaders of the Congress are seeing the possibility that the next time people will vote for it since it would be the only option against the BJP. If this happens, then the existence of regional parties will be pushed to the margins.

COMMON PlIGHT OF MUlAYAM AND NITISH

The past and the present Chief Ministers of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, Mulayam Singh and Nitish Kumar respectively, are clamouring in the same style at least in one case. Before the elections, both of them were overconfident of minority votes. Mulayam has been in the good books of the Muslims for years and Nitish, on the pretext to stop Modi, too had tried to establish himself as the messiah of Muslims after breaking his party’s 17 year old relation with the BJP.

But both the leaders got huge jolts. Mulayam and his supporters made an emotional appeal to the Muslim voters of Azamgarh. They said that Netaji had taken such a big risk from Azamgarh as they had confidence in the Muslim voters. Nitish too followed the same path. His supporters told that Nitish put his Government at stake only for the sake of the Muslim voters. It didn’t make any difference and that is the reason why the big leaders of the JD(U) are complaining that they did a lot for the Muslims but didn’t get anything back from them. After this emotional clamouring, the party too is considering the possibility for patching up with the BJP. Though, the BJP is not ready for this right now because it has a majority on its own.

WIll THE BJP AND JD(U) REUNITEIJ

Will the JD(U) and BJP come together again after the electionsIJ Right from Patna to Delhi, it is being discussed that if the JD(U) succeeds in saving its existence then there are chances that both the parties can become partners again. Both the parties are again looking for possibilities to come together for the Assembly elections and are apprehensive of lalu Prasad Yadav’s comeback.

According to sources in the JD(U), one of the senior leaders in Bihar, who used to be close to the Chief Minister, has told his colleagues to not make personal attacks on Nitish Kumar.

Nitish and his advisors are not ready to accept that Muslims will vote for them in the Assembly elections. They feel that if a Modi Government is formed at the Centre, then Muslims will feel insecure and will incline towards lalu because he has fixed a vote bank of 14 per cent.

The BJP leaders feel that if no party gets a majority in the Assembly elections then it can’t go with the RJD at any cost. In this scenario, the BJP and JD(U) can come forward for Government formation. So, the JD(U) leaders are planning that there must be talks for supporting the BJP Government at the Centre and in lieu of that, the Central Government can announce special status to Bihar.