The political leadership of our two countries has strongly reaffirmed the importance of the relationship. However, many unhelpful narratives on Russia permeate our public discourse. They are fed by an “information” barrage from the West, demonising Russia’s politics and trashing its economy. A home-grown narrative is that, with India’s growing global clout, we are not as dependent as before on Russia’s support for our core concerns and that a Russia more aligned with China and cosying up to Pakistan is a less reliable friend.
These assumptions merit a reality check. We should remember the critical support we received from USSR through vetoes in the UN Security Council (UNSC), which protected our position on Jammu & Kashmir, upheld our liberalisation of Goa and prevented reversal of our military successes in the 1971 India-Pakistan war. This support retains relevance. Our recent efforts for permanent membership of UNSC and of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) did not succeed. We could not unite the international community in isolating Pakistan for its sponsorship of terror. We, therefore, still need friends, particularly among permanent members of UNSC.
India’s defence equipment is 60-70 per cent of Soviet/Russian origin. Their maintenance and technological upgradation are a significant part of our defence cooperation. No country has so far matched the level of sophisticated weaponry that Russia supplies to India. The latest example is the S-400 air defence system under acquisition, which NATO acknowledges as state-of-the-art. Even with our recent diversification of arms imports, Russia supplied 68 per cent of India’s arms imports in 2012-16.
In 2008, NSG permitted the international nuclear energy cooperation with India. Yet Russia is today the only foreign participant in India’s nuclear power industry. Two 1000 MW units in Kudankulam are already on-stream and two more are under construction. The ambitious plan is for a total of over 13,000 MW in two decades.
Russia is a hydrocarbons superpower. In 2015-16, Indian companies invested about $6 billion in Russia’s oilfields. In the other direction, Russian oil giant Rosneft acquired Essar Oil’s Vadinar refinery and port for an estimated Rs 86,000 crore. Rosneft now owns about nine per cent of India’s oil refining output.
These two-way investments should dispel Indian misconceptions about Western sanctions and the Russian economy. Western sanctions against Russia have a limited territorial and sectoral coverage. Their own companies find ways around them. USA and UK are at the forefront of the sanctions regime; yet their banks participated in the investments of our oil companies in Russia. As for the Russian economy, the International Monetary Fund reports show it has returned to a growth trajectory since late 2016.
At around $ 7-8 billion, India-Russia trade does not measure up to potential. There are some objective reasons, primarily the absence of land connectivity and the inordinately long sea route. The multi-modal International North-South transport corridor (INSTC), now moving towards operationalisation, would cut both freight and transit time by about half and could be a game-changer. India, Russia and Iran need to quickly sort out customs and other logistical details. If India can ensure timely development of Chabahar port in Iran and link it by rail to Zahidan, it will multiply benefits from INSTC, in addition to boosting our trade links with Afghanistan and Central Asia. A Free Trade Agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (comprising Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia) is under negotiation. There are other initiatives like a Customs “green corridor”, reconciling phytosanitary standards and arrangements for trade in local currencies, all of which can reduce the transaction costs of trade.
Russia’s abundance of natural resources and India’s shortage of them create a synergy. President Putin has personally focussed on the Russian Far East, where investors are offered special consideration, including infrastructure development and tax concessions. We can similarly benefit from S&T collaboration in Russia’s traditional strengths like computational mathematics, aerospace, materials science and nuclear engineering.
In a multi-polar world, vibrant links with Russia improve our bargaining position with other partners — whether for modern technologies or political support.
Even the closest strategic partnerships are not immune to differences. In India, questions are raised about Russia’s dealings with Taliban in Afghanistan or about Russia-China and Russia-Pakistan relations. Russia has concerns about our strategic cooperation with USA. When there is a larger political convergence, these issues can be resolved to mutual satisfaction through frank dialogue.
We should explore out-of-the-box initiatives to further widen the India-Russia partnership. India and Russia could co-invest in the Chabahar-Zahidan railway link and partner together in hydroelectric projects in Nepal. India-Russia-Bangladesh cooperation in nuclear energy is already under discussion. Broad-basing cooperation would enhance mutual stakes in the relationship and will promote greater sensitivity to each other’s core concerns.
The writer is Convenor, National Security Advisory Board Former Ambassador of India to Russia (2014-16)
(Views expressed are personal)