Asaduddin Owaisi must not be allowed to succeed in the State because his brand of brazen sectarian politics is dangerous. It's as devastating as that practised by radicals belonging to other communities
After having failed in his foray into Bihar, Mr Asaduddin Owaisi is now eyeing Uttar Pradesh. He has spoken of a Dalit-Muslim combination to take on the Samajwadi Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2017 Assembly election. He raised the slogan, “Baba sahib tera mission adhoora, ab Owaisi karega pura (Babasaheb Ambedkar, your incomplete mission will be realised by Owaisi),” at a rally in Faizabad district recently. Some analysts see in this development a hint that Mr Owaisi hopes to forge an alliance of his All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen with the Bahujan Samaj Party and thus consolidate the Dalit-Muslim votes. Mr Owaisi hasn’t said so in that many words, but it’s possibly on his mind.
The question is: Does Ms Mayawati share his beliefIJ Or, is there any reason why she should be enthusiastic about the prospectIJ The BSP leader is known to keep her cards close to her chest until the very last moment and even do a last minute flip-flop if it suits her interests. It is, therefore, unlikely that she will at this early stage — the Assembly election is still 12 months away — reveal her hand. On the face of it, though, there is little reason why Ms Mayawati should find any merit in Mr Owaisi’s implicit offer. For one, she had on her own in the past crafted the Muslim-Dalit alliance which, along with her successful wooing of a significant section of the upper castes, brought the BSP to power in 2007 and her, the chief ministership. In other words, she may not need Mr Owaisi, an outsider, to boost her winnability.
The AIMIM leader also has the image of a rabble-rouser and an extremist espousing the Muslim cause. While this may suit his constituents elsewhere, in Uttar Pradesh it could put off the other communities, especially the upper castes which Ms Mayawati will be seeking to wean away from both the BJP and the SP. The BSP supremo already has a difficult task ahead, given that the BJP goes into the election buoyed by its 2014 lok Sabha performance in the State, when it won 71 of the 80 seats, leaving none for her party. The ruling party at the Centre will want to consolidate the gains it made across the caste spectrum, although it must be admitted that a State election is a different kettle of fish. The Dalit community had, for instance, largely dumped the BSP and voted for BJP candidates because they wanted Mr Narendra Modi to become the Prime Minister. This time around, the Dalits are by and large likely to return to the BSP fold. However, it’s the others (the non-Yadav backward classes and the upper castes) that the BJP will seek to aggressively retain. Ms Mayawati will lose whatever little hope she has of winning over the upper castes (or at least some sections of it) in case the BSP strikes a pact with Mr Owaisi.
On the other hand, Mr Owaisi’s presence in Uttar Pradesh’s electoral politics in 2017 as a lone wolf will suit the BSP better. There will then be a chance, even if slim at this moment, of the AIMIM cutting into the Samajwadi Party’s Muslim vote-bank and indirectly helping Ms Mayawati. There is another possibility if one takes into account that even the Muslim community, post-Muzaffarnagar violence especially, is upset with the Samajwadi Party Government led by Mr Akhilesh Yadav. The discontent can be exploited by Mayawati two-fold — one by weaning away the larger portion of the community to her side, and the other by allowing Mr Owaisi’s party to take away the more hardline voters.
This assumes that Mr Owaisi will not repeat his dismal performance of Bihar. Even if he does not, he is such a polarising figure that he will end up harming anybody who ties up with him in Uttar Pradesh. Moreover, Ms Mayawati is not the type to allow another leader to rise to the top in the State by using her shoulders. And she certainly would not want a ‘Muslim leader’ (which is how Mr Owaisi is wanting to project himself, regardless of his protestations to the contrary) to emerge in Uttar Pradesh riding on her popularity. That the AIMIM leader chose to address his rally at a place in Faizabad dominated by Muslims (38 per cent), is similar in strategy to the one he adopted in the Bihar Assembly election campaign in 2015 where he concentrated his energies on the Seemanchal region which has a sizeable Muslim population.
If Mr Owaisi fails in his latest venture — and at this moment there is nothing to suggest that he has a bright future in Uttar Pradesh despite the State having a Muslim electorate of roughly 18 per cent of the total voting population — it will be back to the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party for the Muslim voters in the State. And, if the Muzaffarnagar issue plays out strongly in the minority community’s consciousness, then the BSP will be the obvious beneficiary. There is also the real possibility of the minority votes being split between the two parties, which will naturally suit the BJP. However, there can be consolidation too, in case certain leaders of the BJP, prone to making inflammatory statements, end up shooting the party in its feet. We saw this happen in Bihar where, many experts believe, the BJP snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by not just angering the minorities but also alienating potential moderate supporters through ill-timed and ill-tempered outbursts from responsible leaders.
Whether the AIMIM leader secures an alliance with Ms Mayawati or not, one thing is certain: He has firmly pitted himself against the Samajwadi Party. This underscores the belief that the ruling party in lucknow is still the pre-eminent choice of the Muslims in the State and it is from this party that Mr Owaisi needs to snatch away the Muslim community. Mr Owaisi has rubbished the Samajwadi Party as a “naatak (drama) company” and taken potshots at its supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav. This will surely please Ms Mayawati, but perhaps not enough to extend a hand of friendship to the AIMIM.
Mr Owaisi must not be allowed to succeed in Uttar Pradesh because his brand of brazen sectarian politics is dangerous. It’s as devastating as the kind practised by extremists belonging to other communities. He and his senior party members have a record of being communal. In the most recent case, while campaigning for the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation election, he is reported to have told a gathering that, if they wanted the freedom to consume beef, they should vote for the AIMIM candidates. The minority community voters of Uttar Pradesh should, like their counterparts in Bihar, disabuse Mr Owaisi of the belief that his politics of hate has many takers.