Task for rival AIADMK factions has got tougher
The RK Nagar Assembly by-poll in Tamil Nadu has taken an interesting turn with the Election Commission of India (ECI) freezing the AIADMK's Two leaves symbol and recognising the party's two factions led by VK Sasikala and O Panneerselvam as AIADMK (Amma) and AIADMK (Puratchithalaivi Amma) respectively. The ECI's decision formalises the split in the party's camp that took place after the death of J Jayalalithaa. The new development has added a fresh challenge for the two groups, since they not only have to now contest against each other but also do so without the long-recognised party symbol the voters have associated the AIADMK with. The new symbols they have been given by the ECI is not registered in the voters' mind. Besides, voters are still grappling with the dilemma of associating with one or the other faction, since both are claiming to be the inheritors of Jayalalithaa's political legacy. The ECI had no option but to freeze the original symbol since neither of the two sides could effectively substantiate its claim of being the ‘real' AIADMK. On the face of it, the rival DMK stands to gain from the division, both in terms of the divide in Jayalalithaa's party and the frozen Two leaves. The DMK and its Rising Sun poll symbol are known entities. Besides, under MK Stalin's leadership, the DMK has been aggressively pushing to exploit the vacuum left behind by Jayalalithaa's death. In this, he has been helped by the infighting that the AIADMK has seen over the last weeks, living it considerably weakened. There is no doubt that the people of RK Nagar constituency were deeply attached to Jayalalithaa during her lifetime and remain so in the wake of her death. In normal circumstances, the by-election would have been a cakewalk for the AIADMK, with the sympathy factor dominating over everything else. Unfortunately for the party, the rivalry over her successor has left the party in disrepair. Nevertheless, Amma's name may just about swing the votes in favour of either of the two factions. If the Sasikala or the Panneerselvam camp candidate wins, the success will be credited to Jayalalithaa.
The larger question, however, goes beyond the electoral outcome. The future of the AIADMK as a cohesive unit remains uncertain. Although Sasikala is in prison, having been convicted in a graft case, she is in complete command of the Government led by Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami. The Panneerselvam camp may have fewer numbers on its side, but that strength may be enough to cause harm to the party's prospects in the coming months. Besides, it's quite possible that the Panneerselvam group may, to gain political heft, later align with one or the other parties opposed to the Sasikala-led AIADMK. If the rival DMK wins the by-poll, the development could either get the two AIADMK camps together or further estrange them. Meanwhile, we must not forget the BJP factor, which could come into play post the by-election.